Leo Lewis in Beppu
December 4, 2007
TimesOnline
A struggle by nations to secure sources of clean water will be “potent fuel” for war, the first Asia-Pacific Water Summit heard yesterday.
The Secretary-General of the United Nations, Ban Ki Moon, told delegates from across the region that the planet faced a water crisis that was especially troubling for Asia.
High population growth, rising consumption, pollution and poor water management posed significant threats, he said, adding that climate change was also making “a bad situation worse”.
Mr Ban went on to condemn the lack of heed paid by governments to these warning signs: “Throughout the world, water resources continue to be spoiled, wasted and degraded.
“The consequences for humanity are grave. Water scarcity threatens economic and social gains and is a potent fuel for wars and conflict.”
His remarks come as environmental experts in Great Britain have identified 46 countries — home to 2.7 billion people — where climate change and water-related crises will create a high risk of violent conflict.
A further 56, representing another 1.2 billion people, are at high risk of political instability, claims a report by International Alert, which concludes that it is now “too late to believe the situation can be made safe solely by reducing carbon emissions worldwide and mitigating climate change”.
Janani Vivekananda, one of the authors of the International Alert report said:
“Water management will be a huge tinderbox and now is the time for international organisations to come together. There is huge potential not just for conflict but for co-operation.”
Mr Ban's comments were echoed by many of the other speakers at the water summit, who gathered in southwestern Japan to discuss a range of issues, including policies that might prevent the various aspects of an Asian water crisis deepening into armed conflict.
Yasuo Fukuda, the Japanese Prime Minister, vowed yesterday that water and climate change would be at the top of the agenda for the Group of Eight summit in Japan next summer.
The Beppu summit, which began on the same day as UN Climate Change talks in Bali, also coincides with a study directly linking water shortages to violence throughout history.
In a report published in by the United States National Academy of Sciences journal today, David Zhang, of Hong Kong University, has analysed a half millennium's worth of human conflict — more than 8,000 wars — and concluded that climate change and resulting water shortage has been a far greater trigger than imagined previously.
If global warming continues, water shortages could trigger more wars, Dr Zhang told The Times:
“We are on alert, because this gives us the indication that resource shortage is the main cause of war. Human beings will definitely have conflicts over this; whether it turns to war depends on the quality of the social buffer available to each nation, but the danger is right there.”
The Asia Development Bank, which was also represented at the Beppu summit, informed delegates that without rational water development and better management, the future social development of Asian developing countries would be seriously jeopardised.
The president of the ADB, Haruhiko Kuroda, said that his bank now plans to double investment in Asian water projects to $2 billion per year, given the potential for conflict if water governance remains weak.
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