The Pacifist War

Is War Looming As Japan Strengthens Its Military Power and Tensions Escalate Over Disputed East China Sea Islands?

Courtesy Of Al-Jazeera

In the waters of the East China Sea, a daily show of aggression is displayed around the uninhibited Senakaku/Diaoyutai Islands. Coast guards from China and Japan play a dangerous game of cat and mouse as both sides try to lay claim to the disputed resource-rich territory. The concern is - that the two powers are riding towards war.

101 East presenter Steve Chao takes a trip to the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyutai Islands, 200km from Taiwan and 2,000km from Tokyo. This region is home to rich fishing grounds and potential gas deposits.

With China’s growing hostility and nuclear missile threats from North Korea, Japan’s newly-elected Prime Minister Shinzo Abe vows to strengthen the country’s military power to defend the islands at all cost. And that task falls on Japan’s Self-Defense Force (SDF), made up of ground, maritime and air units.

During this time of heightened tensions, Japan’s Self-Defense Force granted 101 East rare and exclusive access into its operations to showcase the depth of its military prowess. No other media outlets have had this level of openness. We are allowed deep into the inner workings of the force and speak to commanders and soldiers who – for the first time in generations – are preparing to put their lives on the line to protect the country.

Japan’s Self-Defense Force was formed in 1954. It is Japan’s first defense unit since the country was forced to end its aggressions after World War II. Under government guidelines, the force is meant to be defensive, not offensive, and leaders have so-far prevented labeling it, as a military – although it is increasingly seen as such internationally.

101 East speaks with General Shigeru Iwasaki, chief of defence staff, who says the current threats around Japan justifies the SDF.

In order to understand the strength of the force, we went onboard the Hyuga-class carrier. It is a 13,500 tonne contradiction – the constitution forbids the building of an aircraft carrier. Instead it is reclassified as a destroyer class vessel.

We also visited the F15 Squadron at the Naha airbase in Okinawa. It is the closest airbase to the Senkaku/Diaoyutai Islands. In the past year, they scrambled 306 times against foreign incursions.

In January this year, an F15 incepted a Chinese aircraft headed for the islands. Japan’s ally, the US have since sounded warnings to China about the intrusions.

On the ground, Japan’s elite force, the 1st Airborne Brigade holds wargames and military exercises as a very public demonstration to China. The mission – be prepared to retake the islands if necessary. In a potential armed conflict, the unit is expected to be the first deployed as a rapid reaction force. We speak to the commander and elite paratroopers of the 1st Airborne Brigade and they have very bold answers on how the SDF should be changed, and China’s perceived threats.

As Japan begins to reshape, rename and transform what many consider its “military power”, constitutional advisors, like Setsu Kobayashi worry that a change in the hands of its current leaders will restore militarism, going against longheld and cherished ideals of pacifism for which Japan stands for.

Katsumoto Saotome, the director of the Tokyo Air Raid Museum, is also hesitant of Japan changing its constitution to allow for a full military. The museum, he says, is a reminder of love and peace for the next generation, a place where the Japanese can learn from their past mistakes. The photographs displayed there paint a picture of devastated Tokyo after the US bombing raids in the late 1940s.

Japan Explores War Scenarios With China

... three of five scenarios explored by the defense ministry recently involve the Self-Defense Forces squaring off against the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

While contingencies involving North Korea’s ballistic missiles and Russia were among the scenarios the defense ministry explored, the top three all involved a crisis in the East China Sea. 

The first scenario examined a war between China and Japan over the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku islands in the East China Sea. Earlier on Tuesday Japan summoned the Chinese ambassador in Tokyo for the first time since Shinzo Abe was sworn in as prime minister to protest the continued presence of official Chinese ships in waters around the islets, which are claimed by Japan, Taiwan and China.

The second scenario, meanwhile, expands on a Senkaku contingency and looks at a widening war involving PLA attempts to seize the Ishigaki and Miyako Islands west of northern Taiwan.

The third, and perhaps most controversial, scenario focuses on how Japan would react to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2021, a date reportedly chosen because it coincides with the 100^th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). According to the scenario, the PLA would rely mostly on amphibious vehicles, special forces, ballistic missiles, and a fighter blockade to achieve its ends.

Although the latter scenario makes it clear that the hostilities would primarily involve the PLA and Taiwanese military forces, it nevertheless raises the possibility that China would attack U.S. and Japanese bases on Okinawa, while using long-range ballistic missiles, such as the DF-21D and DF-31, to threaten aircraft carriers in the region and the Western United States should U.S. forces attempt to intervene in the conflict.

Interestingly, Japan would have a responsibility to come to Taiwan’s aid in the event the PLA engages Taiwanese forces, the Japanese-language Sankei Shimbun said in its reporting on the scenarios on Jan. 1.

There has been much speculation over the years about whether Tokyo would intervene if the PLA ever invaded Taiwan. 

Reports in 2007 alleged that Japanese and U.S. officials, alarmed by growing Chinese might, were considering a plan to coordinate their actions under such a contingency, with Japan providing rear-area support for U.S. forces as stipulated under the Guidelines for Japan-U.S. Defense Cooperation. It is no coincidence that the efforts in 2007 also occurred when Abe, who is regarded as pro-Taiwan, was in power.

The two countries late last year also agreed to negotiate possible changes to the bilateral guidelines to better reflect changes in the strategic situation as well as give Japanese forces more room to maneuver.

While the scenarios remain in the realm of speculation, Japan’s inclusion of a Taiwan contingency again underscores the importance Tokyo places on Taiwan remaining de-facto independent. Certainly, China’s assertiveness in 2012 in both the East China and the South China Sea has done little to reassure Tokyo that it could live comfortably with a CCP-controlled Taiwan so close to its waters and territory. As such, rather than being amenable to “abandoning” Taiwan, as a handful of U.S. academics have been arguing for the sake of “improved” ties with Beijing, Tokyo may become more inclined to ensure that the island continues to serve as a natural barrier to Chinese expansion.

Via: "The Diplomat"