General Alert In Pakistan

By Syed Saleem Shahzad
January 8, 2010
Courtesy Of Asia Times Online

ISLAMABAD - At a time when Islamabad is trying to implement a United States-sponsored initiative for a spirit of dialogue between Pakistan and India, an Indian general has stirred up a hornet's nest, eliciting a belligerent response from across the border.

Indian General Deepak Kapoor, according to media reports, last week said in a closed-door seminar that his country could take on Pakistan and China simultaneously and "bring it to a satisfactory conclusion in 96 hours", and even suggested that a "limited war under a nuclear overhang" was possible in South Asia.

Pakistan, tightly allied with the United States-led "war on terror" and tied down with its commitment to Washington to focus on its western border with Afghanistan rather than on India, chose not to officially respond to the Indian general's remarks.

However, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, General Tariq Majeed, who by virtue of his designation becomes the operational head of all Pakistan's armed forces in the event of war, spoke out.

"Leave alone China, General Deepak Kapoor knows very well what the Indian armed forces cannot do and what the Pakistani armed forces can pull off militarily ... I have doubts that he can be so outlandish in strategic postulations as to put India on a self-destructive path," said Kapoor, known for his anti-American attitude. If the report were correct, he said, the uncalled-for rhetoric only depicted a lack of strategic acumen.

Kapoor identified five thrust areas that would drive a new Indian doctrine.
# While the armed forces prepare for their primary task of conventional wars, they must also factor in the eventuality of "a two-front war" breaking out. In tune with this, after acquiring a greater offensive punch along the entire western front with Pakistan by the creation of a new South-Western Army Command in 2005, India was now taking steps - albeit belatedly - to strategically counter the stark military asymmetry with China in the eastern sector. There is now "a proportionate focus towards the western and northeastern fronts".
# The armed forces need to "optimize" their capability to effectively counter "both the military and non-military facets" of asymmetric and sub-conventional threats like weapons of mass destruction, terrorism, cyber warfare, electronic warfare and information warfare.
# The armed forces have to substantially enhance their strategic reach and out-of-area capabilities to protect India's geopolitical interests stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Malacca Strait. "This would enable us to protect our island territories; and also give assistance to the littoral states in the Indian Ocean region."
# Interdependence and operational synergy between the army, navy and air force must become the essence of strategic planning and execution in future wars. "For this, joint operations, strategic and space-based capability, ballistic missile defense and amphibious, airborne and air-land operations must be addressed comprehensively."
# India must strive to achieve a technological edge over its adversaries. "Harnessing and exploitation of technology also includes integration of network centricity, decision-support systems, information warfare and electronic warfare into our operational plans."

Pakistan's Majeed, a four-star general, was in mid-2008 twice offered the position of chief of army staff by former president Pervez Musharraf when Musharraf turned against the incumbent army chief, General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani. Each time, Majeed refused, as he prefers to stay in the background, although he has emerged as a leader on several issues.

The bulk of the Pakistan army was against Asif Ali Zardari when he announced his decision to run for president, a position he assumed on September 9, 2008. Majeed, however, rallied the top brass, urging that the democratic process should be given a chance and that if the political forces wanted Zardari, their decision should be respected.

Naturally, Zardari was thankful and offered to elevate Majeed, including to a position with complete command and control over all of the branches of the armed services. Majeed declined but continued to exert what influence he had.

From mid-2009, he was at the forefront of the initiative to start a dialogue process with the Taliban, an issue he discussed with senior visiting US military officials. This raised the ire of some sections of Pakistan's strategic quarters which were closely allied with the American war in Afghanistan. Some officers even boycotted Majeed's meeting with his American counterpart, Admiral Mike Mullen, in violation of all protocols.

However, Majeed continued to air his views, which emphasize dialogue with militants. He believes that the American war machine has been badly sucked into Afghanistan and that Pakistan should distance itself from being pulled into that quagmire.

Gradually, Majeed's arguments have taken hold and in the past few weeks there have been some developments concerning Pakistan's dealings with the US.

A stringent mechanism has been adopted in issuing visas to Americans, which has restricted American defense contractors in Pakistan. Their growing presence in the country has for some time been a bone of contention. US diplomats, too, have been under pressure, such as being forced to use regular immigration counters at airports.

This does not mean that Pakistan overnight has become anti-American, or that its cooperation with the US will suddenly cease. These are critical times, though, for both the US and Pakistan, the former embroiled in Afghanistan, the latter struggling with spreading militancy, and what are now just trends could evolve into something bigger.

Three important appointments in Pakistan this year could have an influence on such trends, including Majeed's sentiments.

The director general of the Inter-Services Intelligence, Lieutenant General Shuja Pasha, is due to retire in March. The government has so far not shown any interest in extending his tenure. Army chief Kiani is due to step down in November. Washington is keen to see his term extended, as he dovetails perfectly with American policies on the region. Majeed, too, is slated to retire in October, which leaves him a matter of months to push his views.

Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com

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