May 3, 2011
Courtesy Of "Asia Times Online"
TEL AVIV - Egypt is changing quickly. The emphasis is on "quickly". Ever since the ouster of former president Hosni Mubarak in February, it was clear that change was coming, even though skeptics doubted that the military which took over would do much to transform the country. Now, however, those doubts are clearing - partly in response to steady domestic pressure and sporadic protests, but also apparently influenced by new thinking at the top. It is still unlikely that what is coming will be better for the Egyptians (indeed, for the entire Middle East) than what was, but changes are happening.
This is true about internal politics, and is even more true about foreign policy. There have been major developments on both fronts in the past few weeks and days. For example, new Justice Minister Mohammed el-Guindi claimed on Saturday that Mubarak could face the death penalty. "Certainly, if convicted for the crime of killing protesters, it could result in the death sentence," he told the Egyptian daily al-Ahram. A major development to watch for is whether the former interior minister, Habib el-Adly (himself a prime suspect) will testify against his former boss.
The looks of disbelief on Mubarak's sons' faces as they were taken to prison earlier this month confirms the rapid pace of changes [1]. Numerous high-ranking former regime officials have been questioned and indicted, some in relation to a controversial gas deal with Israel (more on that later).
Mubarak's National Democratic Party (NDP) was dissolved two weeks ago, ending widespread speculations about its future. True, a new military-sponsored structure is likely to emerge on its ruins - a move that would parallel what happened in numerous other post-revolutionary places around the world (eg in Eastern Europe in the early 1990s) - but this is undoubtedly a major move.
The party was by far the best organized political force in the country, followed by the Muslim Brotherhood, and we can expect that the future of Egypt will be shaped by a new version of these two structures (see also my article Egypt moved by deep waters, Asia Times Online, April 1, 2011). For now, however, the remnants of the NDP will most likely keep a low profile.
The Brotherhood itself is preparing for a major political offensive. Recently it formed a new party, the Freedom and Justice Party, which will "contest half of the seats in Egypt's parliamentary elections in September", as news outlets reported on Sunday. This is an upward revision of goals - previously, the Brotherhood had said it will aim for one third of parliament seats.
There are also new faces in Egyptian politics. Among the less known rising stars is Dr Zahi Hawass - an archaeologist who is currently serving as minister of state for antiquities affairs. He has become something of a celebrity in both Egyptian and international media in recent months, and seems to be banking on the country's ancient history as a powerful unifying factor of national identity.
The latter pattern is hardly a new development, and Mubarak himself had exploited pharaonic imagery widely in his campaigns. In a country which saw its golden ages thousands of years ago, a political and social narrative exists in tension with Muslim and Arab solidarity, glorifying the alleged descendents of pharaonic Egypt, and looking for them in rural areas which are supposedly more "pure" from later Arab influences. It is a tall tale by most accounts, but a powerful one.
Particularly after the attacks on the Egyptian Museum of National Antiquities during the January protests, Hawass has gained in popularity [2]. A court process against him has so far had little impact on his career [3]. According to a source, while he is still not a major player in Egyptian politics, he stands to become one in the coming months and years.
Even more striking are the foreign policy developments related to Egypt. If the United States and its allies had hoped that after Mubarak, the military regime would toe its line and uphold its policies in the Middle East (for example, by furthering its agenda in Libya), those hopes appear to have sunk. The "new" Egypt is pursuing its own interests , in a manner that is far from transparent and is making a lot of people in the Middle East very uncomfortable as a result.
There is at least some continuity between Mubarak and post-Mubarak Egypt - otherwise it is inconceivable that Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas would make public his remarks to United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, dating from the last days of Mubarak's rule.
On the other hand, those very remarks pinpoint the uncertainties facing the most populous Arab country. "From day one, when it started with Mubarak, I had a telephone call with Madame Clinton. I told her, 'Do you know what are the consequences? Either chaos, or Muslim Brotherhood or both,'?" Abbas told Newsweek recently. "Now they have both."
As mentioned above, a major accusation against the former president and his circle is that he betrayed the national interests by selling cheap gas to Israel. More recently, reports surfaced that he even made most of his wealth in this way [4]. By most accounts, this is yet another manipulation of the truth - as Israeli National Infrastructure Minister Uzi Landau pointed out last week, "The price Israel pays Egypt for the gas isn't low, it's twice as much compared to [what] Syria, Jordan and Lebanon [pay Egypt]. The rate the Israel Electric Corporation pays the Egyptian gas company is identical to the rate it pays Israel gas suppliers."
The Egyptian narrative, however, fits neatly with last week's explosion on the Arab Gas Pipeline that supplies all these countries. This is the third attempt to bomb the pipeline in recent months (two succeeded, in one case the explosives failed to detonate), and it seems that Egypt is quite content to do little to prevent such terrorist tactics. The country's leadership is set on claiming "state of emergency" circumstances in order to justify the cutoffs and withhold compensations [5] while it attempts to renegotiate the contracts.
Another recent metaphoric bomb shell that Egypt dropped on Middle Easter politics came in the form of a reconciliation deal between Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah (see my articlePalestinian reconciliation sends shock waves, Asia Times Online April 29, 2011). There is still a lack of clarity surrounding the deal, and an official document is expected to be signed later this week by Hamas's supreme leader Khaled Mashall and Fatah's leader (Palestinian President) Mahmud Abbas. According to reports, Hamas leaders are currently in Cairo finalizing the agreement, and last-minute surprises are not out of question.
Israeli officials are reportedly "very worried" by the move, and especially by Egypt's promise to Hamas to reopen the Rafah border crossing permanently. Some expressed doubts it would go through. "Based on recent conversations, it seems the crossing will remain shut for the time being, with no intentions to open it," an Israeli official told the Internet site Ynetnews on Sunday.
Egypt, however, insisted that the crossing will open, and warned Israel not to interfere with the move, which appears to be in violation of a 2005 agreement between Israel, the United States, and Egypt. [6]
The international community as a whole has so far downplayed the significance of the deal, even though, as the Israeli news site Ynetnews.com reported, "privately, both US and European officials acknowledged that Cairo's decisions could significantly undercut Washington's efforts to reignite the Israeli-Palestinian peace process."
Hamas has been adamant that it would not talk to Israel. Not only that, but on Friday the political leaders of the movement in Gaza called on the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) to "rescind recognition of Israel." On Monday, however, an unnamed Hamas official allegedly acknowledged that continuing the peace talks - which doubtlessly entails some sort of a recognition of Israel - was a precondition for the reconciliation agreement.
The ambiguities surrounding Egypt's position vis-a-vis Israel are expressed also in several other developments. Egypt's warming of relations with Iran has raised major concerns. Moreover, a recent poll showed that over half of the Egyptian public wants the 1979 peace treaty to be annulled [7]. Egyptian officials, on the other hand, have insisted that they have no such intentions.
Furthermore, the London-based newspaper al-Hayat reported on Saturday that a major topic to be discussed by Egyptian intelligence officials and Hamas military leaders in Cairo in the next days is the release of captive Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. Israeli analysts had speculated since last week that such talks might accompany the reconciliation accords, and we can expect news on that front soon.
Overall, it appears that Egypt is trying to balance carefully between Israel and the United States, on the one hand, and Iran and its camp, on the other, as it searches for its new foreign policy identity. As a note, Saudi Arabia has been unusually quiet with respect to Egypt, and this silence would warrant careful attention.
Egypt's domestic affairs are similarly murky, and much can happen between now and the September elections. Other countries - as far away as Nepal, sources report - are watching the situation there attentively, hoping to find a paradigm they could use in their own transition processes. There are formidable challenges ahead - not least economic ones - and whether it will be a positive or a negative paradigm, remains to be seen.
Notes
1. Mubarak's sons in ‘total disbelief'as they are hauled off to jail, al-Ahram, April 13, 2011.
2. The Egyptian Museum: In the midst of revolution, Asharq Alawsat, March 12, 2011. 3. Decision in the Court Case Against Me, , Zahi Hawass, retrieved May 2, 2011.
4. Report: Mubarak's wealth came from Israel gas deal, Ynetnews, May 1, 2011.
6. Egypt says not obliged to repay Israel for cut to gas supply, Ha'aretz, April 28, 2011.
7. Egypt warns Israel: Don't interfere with opening of Gaza border crossing, Ha'aretz, April 30, 2011.
8. Poll: Over half of Egypt wants end to Israel peace, Ynetnews, April 26, 2011.
Victor Kotsev is a journalist and political analyst based in Tel Aviv.
(Copyright 2011 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved.)
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