The Regional Implications Of Syria's Crisis

On all fronts - Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Lebanon, Palestine, Israel - Syria is a key player. Its distraction by internal problems reshuffles the regional cards, and adds to the general sense of insecurity and latent violence

By Patrick Seale
First Published: 2011-03-29
Courtesy Of "Middle-East-Online"

Because Syria lies at the center of a dense network of Middle East relationships, the crisis in that country cannot fail to have an impact on the regional structure of power. Problems of foreign policy, long the all-consuming concern of Syria’s leadership, have suddenly been displaced by an explosion of popular protest highlighting urgent and long-neglected domestic issues.

If the regime fails to tame this domestic unrest, Syria’s external influence will inevitably be enfeebled, with repercussions across the Middle East. As the crisis deepens, Syria’s allies tremble and its enemies rejoice.

The situation has acquired a new and more dangerous dimension by the use of live fire against youthful protesters. Civilian deaths at the hands of security forces have outraged opinion across the country, setting alight long pent-up anger at the denial of basic freedoms, at the monopolistic rule of the Baath party, and the abuses of a privileged elite. To these ills should be added severe youth unemployment, as in several other Arab countries; devastation of the countryside by draught over the past four years; and the hardship suffered not only by the struggling masses, but also by a middle class impoverished by low wages and high inflation.

The regime has released some political prisoners and pledged to end the state of emergency in force since 1963. A government spokeswoman has hinted that coming reforms will include greater freedom for the press and the right to form political parties. But at the time of writing, President Bashar al-Asad had not spoken and the promised reforms had not been implemented. It remains to be seen whether promises alone will be enough to quell the unrest.

Meanwhile, the protests have challenged the fundamentals of Syria’s security state. By all accounts, this has led to furious debates inside the regime and to increasingly violent confrontations between would-be reformers and hardliners. The outcome of this internal contest remains uncertain.

Together with its two principal allies, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Lebanese Shi‘a resistance movement Hizbullah, Syria is viewed with great hostility by Israel and its American ally. The Tehran-Damascus-Hizbullah axis – of which Syria is the lynchpin -- has long been seen as the main obstacle to Israeli and American hegemony in the Levant.

With backing from Washington, Israel has sought to smash Hizbullah, notably by its 2006 invasion of Lebanon, and to detach Syria from Iran, a country Israel views as its most dangerous regional rival. Neither objective has so far been realized. But now that Syria has been weakened by internal problems, the viability of the entire axis is in danger.

If the Syrian regime were to be crippled by internal dissent, if only for a short while, Iran’s influence in Arab affairs would almost certainly be reduced -- whether in Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, or even the Gulf.

In Lebanon, it would appear that Hizbullah has already been thrown on the defensive. Although it remains the most powerful single movement, its local enemies sense a turning of the tide in their favor. This might explain a violent speech recently delivered by the Sunni Muslim leader Saad al-Hariri, in which he blatantly played the sectarian card. Cheered by his jubilant supporters, he charged that Hizbullah’s weapons were not so much a threat to Israel as to Lebanon’s freedom, independence and sovereignty -- on behalf of a foreign power, Iran! An early consequence of the Syrian crisis has therefore been to destabilize an already fragile Lebanon.

Shi‘a-Sunni tensions are not restricted to Lebanon but are being inflamed across the region, notably in Bahrain, where a Sunni minority rules over a Shi‘a majority, but also in a predominantly Sunni country such as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, where a restive Shi‘a minority is to be found. When Saddam Hussein ruled in Baghdad, Iraq and Iran were at dagger’s drawn, indeed they fought a bitter eight-year war in the 1980s. But the overthrow of Saddam’s Sunni minority rule brought the majority Shi‘a community to power. The sectarian wind blowing across the region is now serving to draw Iran and Iraq ever closer together.

Turkey is deeply concerned by the Syrian disturbances since Damascus has been the cornerstone of Turkey’s ambitious Arab policy. Turkish-Syrian relations have flourished in recent years as Turkish-Israeli relations have waned and grown cold. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his hyper-active foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, have actively sought to mediate local conflicts and bring much-needed stability to the region by forging close economic links.

One of their bold projects is the creation of an economic bloc of Turkey-Syria-Lebanon-Jordan, already something of a reality by the removal of visa requirements as well as by an injection of Turkish investment and technological know-how. A power struggle in Syria could set back this project and put a limit on further Turkish initiatives.

Syria’s loss, however, may turn out to be Egypt’s gain. Freed from the stagnant rule of former president Husni Mubarak, Cairo is now expected to play a more active role in Arab affairs. Instead of continuing Mubarak’s policy, conducted in complicity with Israel, of punishing Gaza and isolating its Hamas government, Egypt is reported to be pushing for a reconciliation of the rival Palestinian factions, Hamas and Fatah. If successful, this could help defuse the current dangerous escalation of violence between Israel on the one side and Hamas and still more extreme Gaza-based Palestinian groups on the other.

Undoubtedly, the failed peace process has bred extreme frustration among Palestinian militants, some of whom may think that a sharp shock is needed to wrench international opinion away from the Arab democratic wave and back to the Palestine problem. They are anxious to alert the United States and Europe to the danger of allowing the peace process to sink into a prolonged coma. Israeli hardliners, too, may calculate that a short war could serve their purpose. Many Israeli supporters of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s far-right government may dream of finishing off Hamas once and for all.

On all these fronts -- Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Lebanon, Palestine, Israel -- Syria is a key player. Its distraction by internal problems reshuffles the regional cards, and adds to the general sense of insecurity and latent violence.

But of all the threats facing the region, perhaps the greatest -- greater even than of another Arab-Israeli clash -- is that of rampant sectarianism, poisoning relationships between and within states, breeding hate, intolerance and mistrust.

Several of the modern states of the Middle East -- and Syria is no exception -- were built on a mosaic of ancient religions, sects and ethnic groups held uneasily and sometimes uncomfortably together by central government. But governments have themselves been far from neutral, favoring one community over another. As the power of the state is challenged, blood-thirsty sectarian demons risk being unleashed.

Patrick Seale is a leading British writer on the Middle East. His latest book is The Struggle for Arab Independence: Riad el-Solh and the Makers of the Modern Middle East (Cambridge University Press).

Copyright © 2011 Patrick Seale – distributed by Agence Global