Open Source Intelligence

By Arnaud De Borchgrave
UPI Editor at Large
April 18, 2007
SpaceWar

Washington--Almost all the world's intelligence services subscribe to it. It is arguably the world's best intelligence. Its daily brief is read avidly by anyone who matters in governance the world over. Heads of state and government, foreign and defense ministers, intel agency chiefs and corporate CEOs, from Beijing to Brussels and from Washington to Wellington, subscribe to what has become the gold standard for objective global strategic analysis.

Oxford Analytica is the brand.

The Oxford-based organization employs some 1,000 dons from Oxford University and other leading centers of teaching and learning, as well as former intelligence agency chiefs and time-tested and -proven analysts with impeccable track records. Depending on the subject, country or region, about 30 specialists are conference-called daily for an editorial brainstorming session to assess the latest crisis.

In addition to the Daily Brief, OA churns out daily "Global Rolling Assumptions" that underlie the analysis in the Brief. And when OA changes one of its core assumptions, an all-clients advisory is immediately flashed by encrypted e-mail. Annual cost: $30,000.

Deputy Secretary of State John D. Negroponte, the first Director of National Intelligence, said recently, "I've watched David Young develop this unique organization and have learned a great deal over the years from reading its analyses."

David Young launched OA in 1975. He had previously served in the Nixon White House where he assisted in the creation of the Special Investigations Unit, subsequently dubbed "The Plumbers." Following the Watergate burglary of Democratic National Committee offices, Young was granted immunity by the Senate Select Committee on Presidential Campaign Activities, and then moved to Oxford where he completed his doctorate.

Most of OA's clients and readers are overwhelmed from the confusing clatter of instant information overload. So they push back -- and click on OA to rise above the clutter. The Daily Brief, about 500 to 600 words, is concise and covers relevant events with forward-looking geopolitical and economic insight. Many of OA's most important clients agree that if they had to have but one source of information and analysis, this would be it.

Young's global network of academics and specialists also produces country profiles with key political and economic assessments, as well as the personal relationships that mesh them.

OA's latest contribution is "The Global Stress Points Matrix," a list of 20 potential points and where they rank from "negligible danger" of stress to "Very High" and "Extreme."

Overlapping "High," "Very High," and "Extreme" stress points are:

1. United States/Iran: U.S. strike on Iran
2. United States: Deep Recession
3. China/Taiwan: Armed Hostilities

Next in descending order of stress are:

4. International: Avian flu pandemic
5. Pakistan: State collapse
6. International: Chemical/biological attack
7. International: Return to protectionism
8. International: Terrorist dirty bomb
9. International: Oil price shock
10. Iraq: Collapse of state institutions
11. India/Pakistan: Armed hostilities
12. Russia: Rise of assertive nationalism
13. Latin America: Disruption to hydrocarbons sector
14. Lebanon: Civil war
15. Argentina: New sovereign default
16. North Korea: Military conflict
17. Nigeria: Large-scale disorder in the Delta
18. Horn of Africa: Regional conflagration
19. Central Asia: Risk of major disorder
20. Balkans: Return to serious disruption

Each item is inside different sized and colored bubbles to indicate its impact on the global economy. And each category of stress is hedged with "Restrainers" and "Drivers."

For China/Taiwan, for example, restrainers include: China does not have the military strength; Taiwan in no way amends sovereignty provisions; Beijing thinks Taiwan's economy will become gradually integrated with the mainland; Beijing Olympics 2008; possibility of U.S. military intervention; Taiwan renounces independence; U.S.-Japan formalize or strengthen security umbrella for Taiwan.

The "Drivers" in the same category include: Beijing uses Taiwan as nationalist rallying point at time of domestic difficulty; Taiwan builds up diplomatic recognition; Beijing assesses it has military edge; Taiwan declares independence; PLA insists Taiwan should be retaken; Taiwan amends sovereignty provisions.

Stress categories have different sizes and colors for bubbles to indicate their impact on the global economy.

There are also three columns whose numbers represent "the one- and five-year stress balance, and the change in stress balance over the previous three months."

Not exactly digestible fare with breakfast. But the OA's Daily Brief goes well with morning coffee and is a good substitute for pages of irrelevant news that movers and shakers don't have time to read anyway.

The post-Sept. 11 generation of analysts in the 100,000-strong U.S. intelligence community, distributed among 16 agencies, has only childhood recollections of Desert Shield and Desert Storm in 1990/91. The Cold War ended when they were toddlers. The average length of service of a U.S. intelligence analyst today is 5 years.

Multinational corporations that have their own intelligence and risk-analysis departments quickly recruit the best ones. Once they are married with a child or two, the lure of a $20,000 sign-on bonus and a paycheck that can triple their government take-home pay, becomes irresistible.

Source: United Press International