Does Iran Need A Nuclear Weapon?

By Georgy Mirsky
Ria Novosti
SpaceWar

Moscow (RIA Novosti) April 17, 2007--Experts have two main questions about the situation in Iran: First, are the Iranians close to developing a nuclear bomb? And second, are the Americans going to start a war there?

...Officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency have warned many times that it is not possible to prove that Iran wants to develop nuclear weapons. This situation is not likely to change...

But there is still indirect evidence that what the Iranians are developing is very far from a civilian nuclear industry...

...It is clear, though, that Iran does not need the bomb.

Which country would be targeted? The United States is far away, and an attack on Israel would kill not only Jews but also Arabs in both Israel and the Palestinian territories. It is abundantly clear that the Islamic Republic of Iran, with its aspirations to Muslim leadership, would not dare kill millions of its brethren-in-faith.

The bomb has no practical use. Most probably, Tehran plans to stop at the five-minute-readiness level, that is, one step before the bomb.

This would allow the Iranian leaders to enjoy unheard-of prestige at home, dominate the Muslim world, and dictate its terms to the West.

Iran is already talking with everyone from a position of strength because it feels invulnerable and is not afraid of an American attack.

The Americans are stuck in Iraq and cannot afford to launch another military land operation. Pinpoint air strikes at nuclear facilities may delay the Iranian nuclear program for several years but will not change the regime.

In any case, the Iranians are not likely to leave the American strike unanswered. They may attack oil refineries in neighboring countries or U.S. military bases in the region.

This would be a disaster for the U.S. in Iraq -- all the local Shiites who cooperated with the Americans, albeit without much enthusiasm, will turn against them.

This would lead to the defeat of the Republican Party in the 2008 presidential, congressional and gubernatorial elections. Although U.S. President George W. Bush may be very tempted to attack Iran, he is not a dictator and will not ignore public opinion and ruin his party.

The Iranians are not afraid of sanctions, either. Those imposed by the U.N. Security Council are irritating but not very effective.

Only an embargo on oil and gas exports would be deadly for Iran, but nobody except the Americans would insist on such a measure, and the Iranians are fully aware of this.

(Georgy Mirsky is a senior researcher at the Institute of World Economics and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences. This article is reprinted by permission of the RIA Novosti news agency. The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.)

Source: RIA Novosti