***** US, EU Struggling On How To Deal With Iran *****
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By-Carol Giacomo,
Diplomatic Correspondent
Wednesday 11, 2006
Courtesy of: http://today.reuters.com

Washington (Reuters)-After several unsuccessful years trying to arrest Iran's nuclear program, the United States and Europe are uncertain about how to proceed at a crucial point, fearing confrontation with Tehran and facing Russian-Chinese hesitation about tougher action.

Washington and European powers have long threatened that if Iran persisted with what they see as sensitive nuclear activities, they would take the issue to the UN Security Council, which could impose sanctions.

But when Tehran removed UN seals at uranium enrichment facilities on Tuesday and resumed nuclear fuel research, there was no definitive counter-measure announced-Just intesified statements of concern.

US officials and European diplomats predicted they would eventually call an emergency meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency Board to refer Iran to the Security Council.

But interviews with more than a half-dozen officials and diplomats indicated the diplomacy was still fluid.

Tehran insists it Just wants to produce electricity to meet burgeoning energy needs.

"BOLD IRANIAN PROVOCATION:"
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"One would have thought that for such a bold Iranian provocation, there would be a coherent--and very substantial--Western response, but it appears, at least so far, that there is not a unified response," said Robert Einhorn, the Clinton Administration's top nonproliferation expert.

He described the United States and Britain, France and Germany--the European Union 3 who led compromise negotiations with Iran--as "conflicted."

"On the one hand, they would like to react strongly. On the other hand, they are affraid (UN) referral would only expose weaknesses," said Einhorn, now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies thinktank.

Daniella Pletka of the American Enterprise Institute, which has close ties to the Bush administration, said an emergency IAEA board meeting is likely. But from there, "It's not clear where this is going...we're adrift," she said.

Although the Security Council can impose sanctions, there is little appetite for assaulting the economy of the World's fourth largest crude oil exporter.

Even Washington, which already has an embargo on Iran and is its chief adversary, has said UN action would probably begin with a modest step like a statement exhorting Tehran to resume E3 negotiations and freeze enrichment.

RUSSIA and CHINA:
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But Iran has fiercely fought referral, up to this point aided by Russia, which is building Iran's Bushehr nuclear complex, and China, which covets Iran's oil and gas.

But despite being embarrassed when Iran rebuffed a compromise nuclear proposal it made, Moscow still argues that punitive action would cause Iran to end cooperation with the IAEA and accelerate its nuclear work, diplomats said.

The Europeans are expected to formally call off stalled negotiations that offered Iran trade and other benefits if it ended enrichment, diplomats said.

But, emphasized one European official: "as usual (next steps) depend on the Russians, and to some extent the Chinese, and how far they are willing to go."

Some European's want more time to seek consensus with Russia and China. Otherwise any UN initiative would founder, undermining the Council's credibility, nonproliferation rules and any chance of a compelling signal to Iran.

US and European officials are eager to avoid the North Korean case, which was referred to the Security Council, which took no action because members were at odds.

Some countries worry that UN action against Iran could be a prelude to US military action, as it was before the Iraq war. The White House insists it is committed to a diplomatic solution.

"There is a nervousness about where all this is headed. Is this Security Council referral a path to Justify military action against Iran?" One European diplomat said.

"Everyone's afraid of a confrontation with Iran. That's something no one needs right now and that's what the Iranian's are playing on," said another European diplomat involved in the Iranian deliberations.