Showing posts with label Not In Our Interest. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Not In Our Interest. Show all posts

Saturday, April 24, 2010

Buying Allies: Bad Investment

By Doug Bandow
April 14, 2010
Courtesy Of
The National Interest

It’s always better not to fight alone. Presumably that’s why Washington has paid small states to fight on America’s behalf. Alas, it’s a wasteful policy which has encouraged countries to neglect their own defense. The Obama administration is continuing to expand U.S. forces in Afghanistan. Yet the military is stretched: American personnel have been in battle and on occupation duty continually since late 2001. Military outlays run roughly $700 billion and, adjusted for inflation, exceed spending at any point during the Korean, Vietnam and Cold Wars.

Moreover, international support for America’s wars is ebbing. Although Washington enjoyed more backing for attacking Afghanistan than invading Iraq, fatigue is affecting America’s closest allies. Countries like Canada intend to withdraw their contingents and even heretofore steadfast Great Britain is debating its commitment.

In an attempt to pump up the number of allied personnel, Washington plans to rent support from a gaggle of small states which have contributed about 1,300 troops, or about one percent, of the total troops in Afghanistan.

The Pentagon currently runs a $350 million program to improve anti-terrorism capabilities of allied powers. Much of the money has been earmarked for Yemen, a source of terrorist attacks on the United States.

Another $50 million is being directed to Croatia, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia and Lithuania. Exactly what they have to do with terrorism is less clear, since none of them has ever been targeted by al-Qaeda.

The money will mostly go to purchase equipment, with some funds spent on training to deal with roadside explosives. The Pentagon rejects charges that the money is “bribery,” but it’s hard to see what else Washington is buying.

Rick Nelson of the Center for Strategic and International Studies argues: “at the end of the day, we’re asking these allies to join us and we want them to be valuable partners. And some lack the resources to be partners in ways we need them to do so.”

Why, however, does the United States want Croatia, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia, and Lithuania as partners in Afghanistan? Not to be unkind, but why bother? None are serious military powers offering serious military forces. Most embarrassing was the Bush administration’s “Coalition of the Willing,” a group of 49 supposedly essential allies which backed the war in Iraq.

Six didn’t even have a military. Another 39 contributed nothing to the war. Among the global leaders backing up America were Albania, El Salvador, Eritrea, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Tonga, and Uzbekistan. Only Australia, Denmark, Great Britain, and Poland contributed military forces, and only Britain’s contingent was substantial.

Aid money flowed freely, however. Salon’s Laura McClure talked of the “Coalition of the Billing.”

The shameless effort to buy political cover for the George W. Bush administration brought to mind President George H.W. Bush’s campaign to win support for his war against Iraq. Egypt, Iran, Syria, and Zaire all received aid, debt forgiveness or other economic benefits to win their support.

Secretary of State James Baker told Yemen’s UN ambassador after voting against the Security Council resolution authorizing war against Iraq in October 1990: “That was the most expensive ‘no’ vote you ever cast.” The United States immediately suspended a $70 million aid program. (Since then Yemen has become an expensive client state hooked on Washington’s money.)

A number of nations subsequently contributed occupation troops, with a few European states providing low thousands. Most of the contingents barely registered, however: 24 Moldovans, 29 Kazakhs, 40 Estonians, 46 Armenians, 51 Filipinos, 55 Tongans, 61 Kiwis, and 77 Macedonians. Iceland provided two soldiers. Some countries, including Mongolia, Romania, Latvia, El Salvador, Singapore, Bulgaria, Azerbaijan, Albania, Czech Republic, Honduras, Nicaragua, Thailand, Dominican Republic, Portugal, Hungary, Norway, Lithuania, and Slovakia at least broke three digits. Japan provided 600 people, but they were not allowed to defend themselves: Danish and Australian personnel had to guard the Japanese “soldiers.”

This was politics disguised as military assistance.

The practice is being repeated in Afghanistan. Ten countries—eight European states along with Canada and Turkey—break four figures, most on the low side. Another 18, all Europeans other than Georgia and New Zealand, have provided contingents numbering in the three digits.

Then there are the true behemoths: 95 from Finland, 90 from Azerbaijan, 70 from Slovenia, 40 from Armenia, 40 from Singapore, 25 from United Arab Emirates, 15 from Greece, 10 from Bosnia and Herzegovina, 9 from Luxembourg, 8 from Ukraine, 7 from Ireland, 6 from Jordan, 4 from Iceland, 4 from Montenegro, and 3 from Austria.

Small contingents like these obviously are of marginal value, especially since most countries place a variety of “caveats,” or restrictions, on the use of their personnel. Figuring out what to do with a handful of people who aren’t supposed to be anywhere near gun shots in the midst of a war isn’t always easy.

This doesn’t mean that members of small contingents don’t sometimes die. However, personal heroics cannot rescue missions undertaken far more for political than military purposes. Washington is prepared to pay almost any price to avoid standing alone internationally, irrespective of the military value.

Another problem with the desire to enlist small allies is diverting the attention and resources of friendly nations from genuinely vital pursuits. Training militaries in Croatia, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia, and Lithuania to confront terrorism seems curious when several of those nations have far more to fear from Russia. In fact, Georgia rushed home its 2,000-man contingent from Iraq during the war with Moscow. Instead of training its soldiers to fight Washington’s wars, these nations should be preparing their forces to exact a high penalty from any invader.

At the same time, the United States will be exacerbating Moscow’s paranoia by underwriting the militaries of those countries that seem most hostile to Russia.

That may be inevitable with the small nations foolishly allowed into NATO—which illustrates how such members actually are net security negatives for America. Most dangerous is Georgia, a non-NATO state which has open territorial controversies with Russia and which fired first in the August 2008 war.

Even worse from America’s standpoint is the fact that these nations appear to believe that providing minuscule aid in Iraq or Afghanistan entitles them to be defended by the United States—presumably with nuclear weapons, if necessary. Many Georgians begged for American intervention against Russia. “We helped you in Iraq” was a common refrain.

Last December Mikheil Saakashvili explained that his government sent troops to Afghanistan to win Washington’s favor: “Even though Georgia is not yet a NATO member—and while we know our path to membership may be long—we see ourselves as firmly allied in purpose and values with the U.S. and the transatlantic community.” Saakashvili also has said that “Georgia will be more protected” once the Afghan and Iraqi wars are resolved, according to Paul J. Saunders of the Nixon Center. Michael Hikari Cecire argues that in buying American arms “Georgia hopes to purchase security guarantees against powerful Russia.”

America’s military is overstretched, but the cause is Washington’s policy of promiscuous intervention. Renting tiny contingents of soldiers from minor allies is no solution. Washington should stop pretending that it can buy itself out of the growing morass in Afghanistan.

Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. A former special assistant to President Reagan, he is the author of Foreign Follies: America’s New Global Empire (Xulon). He also is a fellow at the American Conservative Defense Alliance.

Monday, February 08, 2010

The Lessons Of Iraq Have Been Ignored

The Target Is Now Iran
The US military buildup in the Gulf and Blair's promotion of war against Tehran are a warning of yet another catastrophe
By Seumas Milne
Wednesday 3 February 2010 21.00 GMT
Courtesy Of
The Guardian

We were supposed to have learned the lessons of the Iraq war. That's what Britain's Chilcot inquiry is meant to be all about. But the signs from the Middle East are that it could be happening all over again. The US is ­escalating the military build-up in the Gulf, officials revealed this week, boosting its naval presence and supplying tens of billions of dollars' worth of new weapons systems to allied Arab states.

The target is of course Iran. Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain are all taking deliveries of Patriot missile batteries. In Saudi Arabia, Washington is sponsoring a 30,000-strong force to protect oil installations and ports. The UAE alone has bought 80 F16 fighters, and General Petraeus, the US commander, claims it could now "take out the entire Iranian airforce".

The US insists the growing militarisation is defensive, aimed at deterring Iran, calming Israel and reassuring its allies. But the shift of policy is clear enough. Last week Barack Obama warned that Iran would face "growing consequences" for failing to halt its nuclear programme, while linking it with North Korea – as George Bush did, in his "axis of evil" speech in 2002.

When Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad this week renewed Iran's earlier agreement to ship most of its enriched uranium abroad to be reprocessed, the US was dismissive. Obama's "outstretched hand", always combined with the threat of sanctions or worse, appears to have been all but withdrawn.

The US vice-president, Joe Biden, underlined that by insisting Iran's leaders were "sowing the seeds of their own destruction". And in Israel, which has vowed to take whatever action is necessary to prevent Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, threats of war against its allies, Lebanon's Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas, are growing. "We must recruit the whole world to fight Ahmadinejad," Israeli president Shimon Peres declared on Tuesday.

The echoes of the run-up to the invasion of Iraq are unmistakable. Just as in 2002-3, we are told that a dictatorial Middle Eastern state is secretly developing weapons of mass destruction, defying UN resolutions, obstructing inspections, threatening its neighbours and supporting terrorism.

As in the case of Iraq, no evidence has been produced to back up the WMD claims, though bogus leaks about secret programmes are regularly reproduced in the mainstream press. Most recently, a former CIA official reported that US intelligence believed documents, published in the Times, purporting to show Iran planning to experiment on a "neutron initiator" for an atomic weapon, had been forged. Shades of Iraq's non-existent attempts to buy uranium in Niger.

In case anyone missed the parallels, Tony Blair hammered them home at the Iraq inquiry last Friday. Far from showing remorse about the bloodshed he helped unleash on the Iraqi people, the former prime minister was allowed to turn what was supposed to be a grilling into a platform for war against Iran.

In a timely demonstration that neoconservatism is alive and well and living in London, Blair attempted to use the fact that Iraq had no WMD as part of a case for taking the same approach against Iran. Perceived intention and potential capability were enough to justify war, it turned out.Mentioning Iran 58 times, he explained that the need to "deal" with Iran raised "very similar issues to the ones we are discussing".

You might think that the views of a man that 37% of British people now believe should be put on trial for war crimes would be treated with contempt. But Blair remains the Middle East envoy of the Quartet – the US, UN, EU and Russia – even as he pockets £1m a year from a UAE investment fund currently negotiating a slice of the profits from the exploitation of Iraqi oil reserves.

Nor is he alone in pressing the case for war on Iran. Another neocon outrider from the Bush era, Daniel Pipes, wrote this week that the only way for Obama to save his presidency was to "bomb Iran" and destroy the country's "nuclear-weapon capacity", entailing few politically troublesome US "boots on the ground" or casualties.

The reality is that such an attack would be potentially even more devastating than the aggression against Iraq. Iran has the ability to deliver armed retaliation, both directly and through its allies, which would not only engulf the region but block the 20% of global oil supplies shipped through the straits of Hormuz. It would also certainly set back the cause of progressive change in Iran.

Iran is a divided authoritarian state, now cracking down harshly on the opposition. But it is not a dictatorship in the Saddam Hussein mould. Unlike Iraq, Israel, the US and Britain, Iran has not invaded and occupied anybody's territory, but has the troops of two hostile, nuclear-armed powers on its borders. And for all Ahmadinejad's inflammatory rhetoric, it is the nuclear-armed US and Israel that maintain the option of an attack on Iran, not the other way round.

Nor has the UN nuclear agency, the IAEA, found any evidence that Iran is trying to acquire nuclear weapons, while the US's own national intelligence estimate found that suspected work on a weapons programme had stopped in 2003, though that may now be adjusted in the new climate. Iran's leadership has long insisted it does not want nuclear weapons, even while many suspect it may be trying to become a threshold nuclear power, able to produce weapons if threatened. Given the recent history of the region, that would hardly be surprising.

For the US government, as during the Bush administration, the real problem is Iran's independent power in the most sensitive region in the world – heightened by the Iraq war. The signals coming out of Washington are mixed. The head of US National Intelligence implied on Tuesday there was nothing the US could do to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons if it chose to do so. Perhaps the military build-up in the Gulf is just sabre rattling. The preference is clearly for regime change rather than war.

But Israel is most unlikely to roll over if that option fails, and the risks of the US and its allies, including Britain, being drawn into the fallout from any attack would be high. As was discovered in the case of Iraq, the views of outriders like Blair and Pipes can quickly become mainstream. If we are to avoid a replay of that catastrophe, pressure to prevent war with Iran will have to start now.