August 7, 2008
Courtesy Of Asia Times Online
DAMASCUS - When veteran United States diplomat Edward Djerejian received notice that he had become America's ambassador to Syria in 1989, he happened to be in Israel. He informed prime minister Yitzhak Rabin, who said, "You will be dealing with the smartest man in the Middle East [in reference to president Hafez al-Assad]." Rabin then warned against what he called a "loophole" in what the Americans were offering to Syria, because if there were any loophole, "Hafez al-Assad will drive a truck through it."Sami Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst.
Those were smart words from the Israeli premier and they still apply to the Middle East of 2008. The American loopholes still stand, and President Bashar al-Assad has driven a truck through them.
Loophole 1: Iraq
In 2003, the Americans believed they could bring stability to Iraq with the help of their Shi'ite allies within Iraq and the support of Saudi Arabia. They thought this could be done while ignoring both Iran and Syria.
That was a fatal mistake, as bluntly spelled out in the Baker-Hamilton report in 2006. James Baker, a former secretary of state and Lee Hamilton, a former US Representative headed the Iraq Study Group, a 10-person bipartisan panel appointed by the US Congress to assess the situation in Iraq.
While Iran controls Iraqi Shi'ites, Syria is very well connected to the Sunni community, including tribal leaders and Ba'athists. Although it cannot order either of them to lay down their arms, it can moderate their behavior peacefully, through dialogue, or aggressively, by threatening, for example, to return many busloads of Iraqis to Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's Iraq.
Most of the 1.5 million Iraqis in Syria are Sunnis. Maliki doesn't want them back, and the Americans fear if they return they will contribute, as members or bankrollers, to the Sunni insurgency.
Some would be arrested for their positions in the former Ba'athist regime of Saddam Hussein. Others would go back to a life of unemployment. Many would be killed by nature or in the sectarian violence that still simmers.
The Americans thought it was wise to have these 1.5 million refugees in Syria, to let the Syrians deal with them. This massive refugee problem had an opposite effect; it gave the Syrians a bargaining card - at a heavy price nevertheless - that the George W Bush administration feared.
Currently, the US still refuses to provide anything but lip service gratitude to the Syrians for housing these Iraqis, withholding any kind of financial assistance to help Damascus.
Five years down the road, America's stance towards Syria has backfired on Iraq, where Syria is far from being sidelined. In addition to the Ba'athists, it is close to several heavyweights, including Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, President Jalal Talabani and Abdul-Aziz Hakim, the head of the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council.
America realized - too late - that Syria's agenda was not too different from that of Washington when it came to post-Saddam Iraq. Syria wanted a strong, secular central government in Baghdad. It did not want religiously driven politicians running the government, nor did it want militias - neither Sunnis nor Shi'ites - roaming the streets of Baghdad.
After all, civil war in Iraq, just as in Lebanon in the 1970s and 1980s, could spill over into Syria. After having tried to sideline them for five years, the Americans are now trying to find a way to ask the Syrians for help in Iraq with as much face-saving as possible. The Syrians will do it - for a price - realizing just how desperate the US is for a success story in Iraq.
Loophole 2: Iran
Nations often act like human beings. When one has many friends, he dines each night with a different friend. When one has one friend, he spends all his nights with this one ally.
For a critical period during 2005-2006, Syria had only one friend to dine with; Iran. This wasn't Syria's choice; it was imposed on Damascus by the US after the passing of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1559, blaming the Syrians for the killing of Lebanon's former prime minister, Rafik al-Hariri, and forcing them out of Lebanon.
The world nodded to American dictates not to talk to the Syrians, and the only country that refused to obey was Iran. That has now changed, as channels have opened and flourished with France, Germany, Spain, Qatar, India and Turkey. By spearheading a campaign to isolate Syria, the Americans unintentionally led Tehran and Damascus to cuddle up. When they realized the folly of their actions, the Americans cried foul play, claiming that an alliance was being formed against them, and called on Syria to distance itself from Iran.
The US realized that to continue not speaking to both Syria and Iran was ludicrous, if they wanted to get results on Iraq. Speaking to both was close to impossible. Therefore, America had to chose: either Syria or Iran. Syria is easier to talk to; it takes less pride swallowing to engage with the Syrians. Syria is a reasonable country that doesn't have a history of anti-Americanism. Syria played a important role in securing the release of 15 British sailors abducted by Iran in 2007. It also helped release a BBC reporter taken hostage in Palestine, through its connections with the military group Hamas.
By doing so, Syria was challenging the long-held view that it was a troublemaker in the Middle East. Nations that can destabilize can also - logically - stabilize. The world is still demanding that Syria does more to get its Persian ally to halt uranium-enrichment activities. A recent meeting in Geneva between Nicolas Burns, the US under secretary of state, and an Iranian diplomat gave the world more conviction that the only party that has credibility to talk to the Iranians into halting their nuclear ambitions, is Syria.
Iran will not listen to the Europeans. It certainly will listen neither to the Arab world nor to the US or the United Nations. That is why Assad went to Tehran last week, to talk to President Mahmud Ahmadinejad and Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei into finding a solution.
Rather than isolate and weaken Syria, the Americans actually made it a problem-solver in a variety of regional issues - thereby making the Syrians indispensable to the Arab and Muslim world - the most important of which is Iran.
Veteran British journalist Robert Fisk explained, "Mr Assad's latest trip to Tehran - just three weeks after he helped to toast the overthrow of the king of France beside President Nicolas Sarkozy [at the July 14 celebrations in Paris] - seals his place in history. Without a shot being fired, Mr Assad has ensured anyone who wants anything in the Middle East has got to talk to Syria. He's done nothing - and he's won."
Loophole 3: Israel
In 2003, Bush raised eyebrows in Syria when he said that Syria was a "very weak country" that "just has to wait" until all regional issues are solved before embarking on peace talks with Israel. He thought he was punishing the Syrians by preventing them from ending conflict with Israel, forgetting that it was in everybody's interests - especially Israel - to close its conflict with Damascus.
This wasn't an Anwar al-Sadat, the former Egyptian president, being punished by being pushed out of the peace process; this was Syria, a country that has worked relentlessly against Israel since its inception in 1948. The Syrians did not mind and this led them to cultivate their relationship with radical groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
A peace deal with Syria would not be just a real-estate deal; an exchange of land between an Arab state and Israel, as was the case of the Camp David accords that led to peace between Egypt and Israel. It would be a complete strategic package that would redefine the balance of power throughout the entire Middle East.
It would mean a new kind of relationship with Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas. That does not mean, however, that Syria will abandon these groups once peace is signed, since it is in the international community's best interests to always have a back-channel to people like Hamas' exiled leader Khaled Meshaal and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
These leaders listen to Syria and trust the Syrians. Syria has credibility in the Arab street and remains committed to Arab nationalism. It is one thing when a pro-Western country like Jordan, which has been at peace with Israel since 1994, tries to talk Hamas into changing behavior. It is something completely different when this mediation effort is done by the Syrians.
By refusing to support Syrian-Israeli peace since 2003, the US was actually doing Israel a great disservice. As a result, violence soured in the Palestinian territories. War broke out in Lebanon in 2006. And more recently, Israel had to abide by the rules of Nasrallah and get the bodies of two of its missing soldiers returned by dialogue and prisoner exchange - for the hefty price of releasing prisoner Samir Qantar to Lebanon. Israel faced a military defeat in 2006 and a psychological one in 2008, with the prisoner exchange. It had to recognize Syria's role in Lebanon and start pushing Bush to refrain from opposing Syrian-Israeli peace.
What is even worse for the Americans is that for the first time since 1990, peace is now being discussed, far from the corridors of Washington. The Syrians and the Israelis entered into indirect talks in May, through the mediation of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The Americans at first refused to endorse this initiative, but under the urging of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, more recently, did not veto the process. Both parties are saying that for full peace to materialize they need the guarantees and sponsorship of the US. That is not going to happen while Bush is in the White House.
What both parties fear is that the talks in Ankara are going well; too well, in fact, so that a treaty is possible before the end of 2008. With no American support, it would become a shelf agreement, set aside until after Bush leaves at the beginning of next year.
Between now and then, anything can happen in the Middle East as non-state players may work hard at changing the mood in either Israel or Syria to drown the peace treaty. The process might take a little longer even than January since any new president needs up to 10 months to get his administration in order and fill all posts in the executive branch. The Syrians aren't suffering if peace is not signed; it is Israel that suffers.
The Israelis are eager to end the conflict, since they believe peace with the Syrians also means peace with Lebanon, and a curbing of the power of Hamas. Alon Ben Meir, a professor of international relations at New York University, wrote, "Israel will have to return the Golan Heights [to Syria] whether it is now or in five, 10 or even 100 years. The Golan will have to be returned if Israel wants to live in peace. Why not negotiate now and appreciably reduce Israel's security concerns with its two northern neighbors and free itself to focus on the threat of Iran?"
Even if Olmert leaves office in September as he has promised, under charges of corruption, his successors are hurrying to uphold the Syrian track, showing just how strongly the mood has changed in Israel. Prime minister-hopeful Shaul Mofaz (current deputy premier), said, "My opinion and my goal will be to continue to speak to the Syrians without preconditions. The way is, peace for peace."
The decision would need approval from the Knesset (parliament), however, and a referendum. Mofaz, who while serving as head of the armed forces during the Palestinian uprising of 2000, ruthlessly crushed the Palestinians, seemed to soften last week, saying, "As a father who has three children in the military, I want peace for them."
Loophole 4: Lebanon
At first glance, Syria's exodus from Lebanon in 2005 was a humiliation for Damascus. A better look shows that it was a blessing in disguise for the Syrians. Although corruption still exists, it helped end major corruption, carried out for years by Syrians and Lebanese, thanks to Syria's position in Beirut.
That is, the exodus helped accelerate Syrian reforms; if the Syrians no longer had Lebanon, then the government had to provide domestic alternatives to pleasure, business, banking, education, commerce and medication. Banks have mushroomed all over Syria. So have private universities. Syrians fearing to send their children to the US after September 11, 2001, and who saw Lebanon as increasingly unstable and dangerous because of the anti-Syrian rhetoric of the ruling March 14 coalition, sent their children to Syrian schools (a total of eight have opened since 2005).
Nightclubs, insurance companies, shopping malls and hotels have all made Syria an increasingly attractive market for investment and tourism, at the expense of none other than Lebanon. These reforms created jobs, and circulated more money in the Syrian market, thereby endearing Assad to a larger percentage of the population, which is young and still searching for jobs and various ways to improve professionally.
Harsh critics of Syria have just recently began to change course in their rhetoric. They realize that nothing can be done in Lebanon without the help of Syria. This was especially true when Syria's proxies in Lebanon scored a thundering victory in May over the Saudi-backed pro-US March 14 coalition.
Although the price was 82 dead on the streets of Beirut - a high price indeed for the Lebanese - it nevertheless produced the Doha agreement, which has restored a certain degree of normalcy to Lebanon. But that agreement seemed to be tailor-made for the Syrians. They got all that they had been asking for. Hezbollah's arms were not discussed and the Hezbollah-led opposition got a greater amount of seats - and veto power - in the new Lebanese cabinet.
Pro-Syrian figures were brought back to government and Michel Suleiman, a pro-Syrian general, was made president, rather than the formerly anti-Syrian Michel Aoun, or candidates from March 14. One of the Lebanese leaders who realized that Syria was getting the upper hand after May was Walid Jumblatt.
In late July, he gave a interview to Lebanese TV, admitting, "We forgot Hariri and focused on taking revenge under the slogan of justice, and this sequestered the March 14 group into an isolationist position. That was a fatal mistake." He added, "We fiercely attacked the Syrian regime and forgot our Arab discourse," claiming, "A divorce is impossible, and we met in Doha."
He also said he had gone to Washington and asked Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to help topple the Syrian regime. When she said it was behavior change, rather than regime change, that was on America's mind, he backed out, claiming it became clear that a stand-off with Syria was not in Lebanon's best interests, since the Assad administration in Damascus was not - as he had wished for in 2005 - beginning its long march into history.
Jumblatt also reportedly met the recently liberated from Israel Druze leader Samir Qantar and said, "There is no protection for us [the Druze], and neither honor nor future, away from Damascus. Here you are and here is [my son] Taymour. You both represent the future of the [Druze] mountain and that of the Druze in the region. You both can mend what happened. All men make mistakes."
One of the finest comments about the new mood in Damascus - thanks to the American loopholes - was made on Syriacomment, a website run by Syrian specialist Joshua Landis of Oklahoma University. A Syrian reader who lived abroad and had just returned for the summer holidays in Syria, wrote:
I found people going about their daily lives as they did before, but this time with a strong sense of Syrian pride of standing together and surviving the storm that was hatched in the dark alleys of the White House. The feeling was that the whole world conspired against them and the Syrians finally won; and the lines at the foreign embassies for Syrian visa seekers have, all of the sudden, disappeared. Syrians are now very happy to have their country still in one piece, prosperous (in relative terms) dignified, and the envy of their neighbors.
He then reported that his Syrian driver, a devote Muslim, was naming his twin boys Ishak and Elias, a Jewish and a Christian name, "I want to make sure that my children grow up in Syria with names that keep reminding them of our diverse nation; this is Syria not Saudi Arabia." That, he added, was how enthusiastic the Syrians were for peace and change.
So the US loopholes created many peace seekers among Syria's 18 million, led Israeli radicals like Mofaz to insist on peace with Damascus, and positioned Syria as a problem-solver in Iran, Lebanon and Iraq.
Yitzhak Rabin was right after all.
(Copyright 2008 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved.)
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