By Noah Shachtman
June 25, 2008 2:03:00 AM
Categories: Space
Courtesy Of Wired
The Defense Intelligence Agency believes that terrorists could be able to "disrupt" American satellites by 2020 -- and that states like China could have "robust destructive capabilities" in space around the same time. The question is, how good are the Pentagon's spies at figuring out our enemies' space programs, really?
In a presentation obtained by DANGER ROOM, Randy Jones, the associate technical director of the Defense Intelligence Agency's Missile & Space Intelligence Center, warned that terror groups could use lasers, radio frequency jammers, and even nuclear weapons to knock out U.S. satellites. Countries like China might launch anti-satellite [ASAT] ballistic missiles -- or position weapons in orbit. These states might be "hesitant," at first, to start blasting American orbiters, Jones observes, "but [would] probably be willing under appropriate conditions" to attack.
Jones' gloomy presentation, "Threats to Space Capabilities," was delivered earlier this month to the Space Security & Defense Conference. In it, he observes that advanced countries already "have the technical basis to develop" an ASAT arsenal. Which is true -- just look at China's 2007 satellite shoot-down. He also notes that "rogue nation/terrorist[s]" can use jammers to interfere with satellite transmission; also true -- Air Force cadets have demonstrated similar abilities, again and again.
But some of Jones' other projections -- that terror groups will be able to "blind" satellites with lasers, and that a China-esque power could have "orbital ASAT[s]" -- are much more speculative. Unfortunately, Jones' colleagues at the Pentagon have a downright awful track record, when it comes to figuring out what is (and what might be) in China's anti-satellite arsenal, the Space Review observes.
Take, for instance, the Defense Department's accusation that Beijing has "developed and tested an ASAT system described as a 'parasitic microsatellite'" - a tiny machine that would attach itself to American orbiters, for nefarious purposes. The claim, which first appeared in the 2003 edition of the Pentagon's annual “Chinese Military Power" (CMP) report, came from a Hong Kong newspaper, and was repeated in several editions. Experts guffawed at the suggestion.
Finally, the Space Review notes, independent researchers traced the story "to an October 2000 Internet posting in China by a self-described 'military enthusiast' who claimed that he had originally developed the idea in the 1990s and suggested it to the Chinese government."
The enthusiast provided no evidence that he actually had any training in spacecraft engineering, nor that he had any influence on the Chinese military. The Pentagon also receives these kinds of suggestions from enthusiastic members of the public—usually written in crayon.
The claim disappeared from "subsequent versions of the report, with no explanation in the report of why this supposed threat vanished."
The 2003 edition also contained a statement that China was building a so-called "direct-ascent ASAT" system -- a satellite-killing ballistic missile. But "the Pentagon did not repeat this claim in the 2004, 2005, 2006, or 2007 editions of the report," the Space Review recounts. Which is too bad. Because "it turns out that this claim was actually true. In January 2007, the Chinese tested a direct-ascent ASAT weapon against one of their own satellites, creating a tremendous amount of debris in low Earth orbit, and a lot of international criticism." One wonders what's missing from Jones' predictions -- and what might be based on shaky evidence.
ALSO:
Company to Pentagon: Don't Shoot Down our Sat
Must-Watch Video: Inside the Satellite Shoot-Down
Pentagon Plan: 'Eliminate' Space, Cyberspace Threats
Sat Shoot-Down, the Musical
Air Force Wants to Counter Sat-Killers, ASAP
Spy Sat Agency Stripped of Power
Pentagon: $520 Million for Space Weapons Research
His Ship Shot the Satellite
Sat Shoot-Down Logo Revealed!
Operation Rogue Satellite: The PR Plan
Spy Satellite Blast, Caught on Tape
Sat Shot Faces Political Fallout
A Warm, Fuzzy Satellite Interceptor
Satellite Debris? FEMA Will Save Us!
Video: Satellite Shoot-Down, Simulated
Wham! Navy Blasts Rogue Satellite
'Seconds' Per Day to Take Out Rogue Satellite
Rogue Satellite's Rotten, $10 Billion Legacy
Wildlife Refuge Braces for Spy Sat Rain
Pentagon Flack Flummoxed by Satellite Shooters
Bad Weather Delays Satellite Shot
Sat-Killer's Track Record
Name the Rogue Satellite Operation
Dying Satellite's Toxic Danger: Way, Way Low
Lewis: Don't Shoot the Spy Sat
Satellite Shoot-Down Set: Intercept Near Hawaii; Debris Cloud Over Canada
Operation Rogue Satellite: The Latest
Experts Scoff at Sat Shoot-Down Rationale
Inside America's Satellite-Killing Missile
Skeptical About the Rogue Spy Sat 'Shot'
Rogue Spy Sat, Sketched
Pentagon Unveils Rogue Spy Sat Shoot-Down Plan
Pentagon to Shoot Down Rogue Satellite
U.S. May Shoot Down Errant Satellite
Falling Spy Sat: Don't Panic
Spy Satellite Will Plummet to Earth
How China Loses the Coming Space War (Pt. 1)
How China Loses the Coming Space War (Pt. 2)
How China Loses the Coming Space War (Pt. 3)
Ukraine Big: We Can Spot Your Sats, Control Space
How to Blow Up a Satellite
"Autonomous" Mini-Spacecraft Team up to Replace Big Sats
Lockheed Lost in Space
Death of a Satellite
Video: Double Hit for Missile Interceptors
Missile Defense's Tight Fit
Missile Defense: Ready Now, or Ready Never?
No comments:
Post a Comment