Afghanistan "Putting NATO's Future In Peril"

By Tom Coghlan in Kabul
Last Updated: 1:52am BST 08/10/2007
Telegraph

The commander of Nato forces in Afghanistan has given warning that the survival of the alliance is at risk amid signs that several key members are re-evaluating their roles against the insurgency.

In an interview with The Daily Telegraph, American General Dan McNeill said that Nato troops were "gaining the upper hand" against the Taliban, but progress was limited by not having a "force big enough to clear and hold every part of this country".

His comments come as political pressure grows in Canada and Holland to downgrade the combat status of their soldiers in southern Afghanistan, where British troops are based.

The governments of Germany and Italy are also under huge pressure over their deployments in the north.

Asked whether the future of Nato was at stake, Gen McNeill said:

"I think all 26 members realise that from a military context, and that is primarily why Nato is here, this is a decision point. Either we are going to get it done, or we won't."

Gen McNeill said that the 58-year-old alliance was holding together, but added: "There is a lot of political dialogue in various capitals, especially in mainland Europe."

His warning comes after Brigadier John Lorimer, the commander of British forces in southern Helmand Province, said the troops faced a "marathon mission" lasting decades in Afghanistan.

According to US officials, Nato has unmet requests from alliance nations for helicopters, hundreds of ground troops and 3,200 trainers for Afghan security forces.

Together with Britain, the Canadian and Dutch governments are the major contributors to the areas of heaviest fighting in southern Afghanistan.

Gen McNeill acknowledged that Canada, which has lost 71 soldiers, was considering downgrading its 2,500 troops from a combat role.

"Their role would be less combat and more mentoring and training the Afghans," he said.

Last week Eimert van Middelkoop, the Dutch Defence Minister, indicated that Holland has no plans to extend its mandate in the Taliban heartland province of Uruzgan beyond August next year...

...Western forces in Afghanistan currently amount to approximately 50,000 troops with around an additional 50,000 Afghan security forces from newly trained army and police units ready for duty.

Using a formula based on population and land mass, the US Forces Counter-Insurgency Manual estimates that a total force of 400,000 to 600,000 is required to pacify a country like Afghanistan.

It is predicted that the first Afghan army and police units will be ready to operate wholly unsupported by Nato in 2011.

A Canadian and Dutch withdrawal would leave the US and Britain as the only countries with troop contributions of greater than 1,000 men prepared to deploy them in a full combat role.

Britain has 7,000 troops in Helmand while the United States has 26,000, some 12,000 of whom lie outside Nato command and undertake anti-terrorist missions.

Last month Germany's government confirmed that it has no plans to release its 3,500-man force in Afghanistan from a so-called 'caveat' that limits German troops to the relatively peaceful north of the country. Nato had requested their use as trainers in the south.

Many other Nato nations, such as France, Italy and Spain, also maintain caveats on the deployment of their forces to the south.