Taiwan's Cruise Missiles To Reach China

Taiwan Develops Missiles Designed To Reach Targets In China

By David Lague
Published: September 28, 2007
IHT

TAIPEI: Faced with a threatening military buildup by China, an increasingly outgunned Taiwan is quietly pushing ahead with plans to develop missiles that could strike the mainland, defense and security experts say.

Taiwan has in recent months tested a land attack cruise missile with a range of 1,000 kilometers, or 621 miles, that could carry a 400-kilogram warhead to targets as distant as Shanghai, according to military analysts.

Some Taiwanese military specialists have argued for decades that Taiwan should develop offensive weapons, including missiles, as a deterrent to the mainland, which has threatened to attack the self-governing island if it moves toward formal independence.

The Pentagon estimates that China has deployed 900 missiles opposite Taiwan.

Taiwan's military currently has no long-range missiles that could be used to attack distant targets in mainland China.

Senior military officials and lawmakers in the governing Democratic Progressive Party of President Chen Shui-bian have confirmed that the land attack cruise missiles were under development.

They said these missiles were essential to Taiwan's defense because China's soaring defense spending was tilting the military balance in the mainland's favor.

"They want to make mainland China hesitate before launching any attack," said Andrei Chang, a Hong Kong-based expert on the Chinese and Taiwanese militaries and editor in chief of Kanwa Defense Review magazine.

"These missiles could not only destroy military targets, but financial and economic targets as well.

"They want to create massive panic," he added.

There have also been unconfirmed news reports in Taiwan that the military is developing short-range ballistic missiles.

Chen's independence-leaning administration refuses to comment on the existence of a ballistic missile program.

The Bush administration has signaled that it opposes Taiwan developing offensive weapons, including missiles.

At a time when Taipei has angered China with a decision to hold a referendum on the island's bid to rejoin the United Nations under the name of Taiwan, the deployment of missiles that could strike the mainland could further increase tensions.

There were reports in the Taiwanese media this month that, under pressure from Washington, the Chen administration had dropped plans to deploy surface-to-surface missiles on Taiwan's outlying island of Matsu near the coast of China's Fujian Province.

Missiles deployed on Matsu would be able to strike targets on the mainland where China has concentrated air, missile and land forces opposite Taiwan.

Taiwan's military refused to comment, but Beijing this week reacted sharply to the reports.

"We sternly warn the Taiwan authorities not to play with fire," Li Weiyi, a spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, told a regular news briefing Wednesday, according to a report carried by the official Xinhua news agency.

"Whoever plays with fire will get burned."

But analysts believe it will be difficult for the Bush administration to restrain Taipei while China continues its rapid buildup of missile forces that could be used to conduct strikes against military targets and vital infrastructure facilities on Taiwan.

The U.S. and Taiwan militaries estimate that China adds up to 100 new missiles a year to its forces arrayed against the island.

"Taiwan will go ahead," said Andrew Yang, secretary general of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, a Taipei-based security policy institute.

"It sends a signal that Taiwan will not be sitting and waiting for Beijing to conduct a strike against Taiwan."

Chang and other experts are confident that the land attack cruise missile, the Hsiung Feng-2E, developed at the Taiwan military's Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology, could soon be in production.

"I am sure it is almost ready," Chang said.

In March, the Washington-based Defense News newspaper reported that this missile had been tested on Feb. 2 at the Jiupeng testing range in Pingtung County on Taiwan's southeast coast.

The newspaper reported that Taiwan's Defense Ministry had confirmed the test without giving any further details.

Defense analysts note that Taiwan publicly acknowledged for the first time this year that offensive missile strikes were now part of its planned response to an attack from the mainland.

In the first phase of its annual Han Kuang exercise in April, Taiwan's military conducted a computer simulation of an engagement with China in which missiles were fired at military targets on the mainland.

A U.S. delegation including the retired commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, Admiral Dennis Blair, observed the exercise, Taiwanese defense analysts said.

In the aftermath of the exercise, the Bush administration urged Taipei to avoid destabilizing the Taiwan Strait and concentrate on defensive weapons.

"We think that offensive capabilities on either side of the Taiwan Strait are destabilizing and therefore not in the interests of peace and stability," said Dennis Wilder, senior director of East Asian Affairs at the National Security Council.

Taiwan's Ministry of Defense denied that the missiles still under development were offensive weapons.

It said that if a decision was made to deploy them, they would only be used if the island was attacked.

"Our country would not make provocations on its own," the ministry said in a statement.

"Only if we suffered an enemy attack would we actually strike back."

Yang from the Council of Advanced Policy Studies said Taiwan's decision to develop longer-range missiles was part of a strategic reassessment of the most effective method to counter the firepower of China's improving land, air and sea forces.

The United States and other powers were unwilling to supply these kinds of weapons to Taiwan, so the island had no choice but to develop its own, Yang said.

Research and development teams from Taiwan's military had continued to improve the range, payload and guidance systems of domestically designed anti-ship cruise missiles to the point where they could be used against coastal military targets on the mainland.

Yang said some of the reports about the capabilities of these new cruise missiles could be exaggerated.

He said they had only been tested to ranges of about 300 kilometers, which would only be enough to reach coastal targets on the mainland.

But there was potential for improvement as development continued.

"In five years time, the range could be extended," he said.

Most military experts say it is unlikely that Taiwan's cruise missiles would have a dramatic impact on the military balance across the Taiwan Strait, given the speed and scale of China's military modernization.

But they would allow Taiwan to strike at important military targets, including airfields, missile launch sites, military bases, logistics centers and fuel storage facilities.

Apart from the disruption to mainland military operations, these strikes could deliver a psychological blow to the Chinese population and undermine popular support for an attack on Taiwan.

While the United States continues to oppose Taiwan's offensive missile plans, the Pentagon announced this month that it was preparing to sell Taiwan 12 P-3C Orion anti-submarine aircraft and surface-to-air missiles as part of a $2.2 billion arms package.

This falls far short of an $18 billion arms deal including the P-3C's, conventional submarines and PAC-3 anti-missile batteries that the Bush administration in 2001 said Taiwan needed to increase its defenses.

Taiwan's main opposition party, the Kuomintang, has continually blocked the Chen administration's efforts to approve the budget for the full package, but partial funding was approved in June.

Beijing last week called on the United States to cancel the sale and sever military ties with Taiwan.