U.S. Concerns As China Builds Nuclear Subs

By Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington and Mure Dickie in Beijing
Published: May 25 2007 03:00
Last updated: May 25 2007 03:00
FT

China has surprised the Pentagon with the pace of development of a new class of submarine that threatens the nuclear balance by providing Beijing with a more robust nuclear deterrent.

According to the 2007 Pentagon China military power report - details of which were obtained by the FT - the Chinese navy is developing a fleet of five nuclear ballistic missile submarines [SSBNs]. The Jin class submarines would provide a much stronger nuclear deterrent because they would be armed with the new long-range JL-2 missile.

The Pentagon last year signalled concerns about the possible development of the Jin submarine.

But a senior US official said the US had been surprised by its "very quickened pace" of development.

"When they develop five vessels like this, they are making a statement," said the US official.

"China's first effort at developing a SSBN force was not serious, but the next generation presumably will be serious . . . China is diversifying its ballistic missile capability [to have] more sophisticated regional capability and a more survivable force."

China says it is engaged in a "peaceful rise". But some US officials and Chinese military experts say that the submarine could alter the strategic nuclear balance.

"If China puts these systems in place effectively on the scale reported in sea-basing and land-basing, it will now have a robust second strike capability," said Lyle Goldstein, director of the China Maritime Studies Institute at the US Naval War College. "What was grey before now is becoming clear. China now can effectively fight a nuclear war."

Mike Pillsbury, a Pentagon consultant on the Chinese military, argues that the Chinese are miscalculating by deploying the Jin.

"President Hu Jintao probably does not appreciate the effect on the US that his military leaders' new deployments will have," he said. "These Chinese steps only play into the hands of our hardliners and push the US towards worst case scenarios. The Chinese have an apt proverb: 'Don't pick up a rock and drop it on your own feet'. President Hu needs to cut back this development and head off a cold-war style arms race."

China developed a first-generation Xia class SSBN in the 1980s but it rarely left port and had limited capability, partly because of the shorter range of its missiles. But the introduction of the Type 094 Jin class marks a new era for China's strategic nuclear forces.

Chinese military strategists have for years been deeply concerned that their relatively modest nuclear forces, which have only an estimated 400 warheads compared with the 10,000 deployed by the US, could be vulnerable to a nuclear or conventional first strike.

Such concerns have been fuelled by the rapid expansion in the US ability to monitor and target even very remote launch sites. Along with Russia, China is also concerned about the US move to develop a ballistic missile defence system that it believes could thwart a limited attack from China's small number of ageing silo-based missiles.

According to US Navy intelligence, China is testing one of the Jin submarines, which could achieve operational capability next year. The deployment poses several problems for the US.

During the Cold War, the US was helped in tracking Soviet submarines by the fact that they had to travel through narrow straits to head out to sea. But China is developing a naval base on Hainan Island, which would give its submarines easier passage, and make them harder to track and target.

The Pentagon is also worried about "command and control" issues, such as preventing accidental, or rogue launches.

"When you look at [Chinese] land-based command and control systems, they are very tight. We never worried about accidental launch," said the US official.

China's defence ministry yesterday declined to comment on its nuclear strategy, but local analysts say the increase in US capability have made expansion and improvement of Beijing's deterrent inevitable.

While the increased range of the new nautical missiles is likely to have a psychological impact on Washington, Chinese analysts say the overwhelming superiority of US nuclear forces means fears Beijing might abandon its official "no first strike policy" are groundless.

Michael Green, former senior Asia adviser to US president George W. Bush, said there "was something to the argument" that China was simply responding to the US nuclear capabilities.

But he says the Chinese are more concerned about US stealth capabilities and cruise missiles, and said the naval development was driven more by internal political logic.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007