Survival Trumps All For Assad
By Victor Kotsev
June 3, 2011
Courtesy Of "Asia Times Online"
TEL AVIV - Syria's uprising has reached a critical juncture, though it looks more like a break moment than like a make moment for the opposition. In the long run, analysts speculate, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's grip on power may loosen or break, but for now he is showing signs of renewed confidence.
The deadly force projected by his security apparatus, allegedly augmented by Iranian and Hezbollah operatives, has silenced many and forced others to flee. Lack of unity seems to plague his opponents. While the international community has been making noises, nothing decisive has come out of these, and Assad for now feels secure enough to embark on a public relations offensive of his own.
To be sure, the situation in the country continues to be grim. As of Tuesday, the Associated Press reported, insurgents armed with rifles and rocket-propelled grenades battled government forces in the Homs province in central Syria. Human-rights organizations have counted at least 1,100 people killed since the start of the unrest, over 10,000 arrested, and countless more wounded or displaced. The Syrian government claims that more than 120 soldiers and police officers were killed by "gangs" and "terrorists".
As the reports of armed resistance suggest, the opposition is still putting up a fight. Similar accounts have been circulating for quite some time; in theory, the violence on the part of the protesters could intensify, and the conflict could enter into a new stage, reminiscent of what happened earlier this year in Libya.
The protest leaders seem to be trying to replicate the insurgence against Libyan ruler Muammar Gaddafi on the political level as well. On Tuesday, around 300 opposition leaders gathered for a three-day conference in the southern Turkish city of Antalya with hopes of consolidating their positions and establishing a parallel government structure down the road.
According to the Guardian, "Key business figures in Syria are aligning themselves with opposition groups before [the] conference ... in a sign that Syria's traditionally pro-regime business elite may be beginning to break ranks with the government of President Bashar al-Assad". [1]
The protest movement arguably has some potential, but how much exactly is uncertain. According to early accounts from the conference, "logistics were very poor", even though the delegates managed to unite behind the agenda of toppling Assad. "While one can accuse the attendees of being politically immature, it would be a huge mistake to underestimate them," writes Syria expert Joshua Landis, citing a source. [2]
The Libyan rebellion is no model for success, and the situation in Syria is a far cry even from it. The Syrian opposition members are divided about most things beyond removing the dictator (as, indeed, are their Libyan counterparts). "It is clear sharp divisions exist among the fledgling opposition [in Syria]," the Guardian report states.
More importantly, the Libyan rebels captured large swathes of territory in the first weeks of the unrest, and established an autonomous entity separated geographically from the main Gaddafi-controlled areas by a large strip of desert that presents challenges to the movement of large armored forces.
Even that would have proved futile had it not been for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization air campaign against Gaddafi. By contrast, the Syrian opposition only has control over a few towns in the center of the country, and is struggling to maintain a foothold in other areas.
Assad has a much more powerful security apparatus than Gaddafi; the former sought to co-opt and strengthen the military, while the latter kept his armed forces weak for fear of a coup. Moreover, the Syrian leader can draw on powerful foreign support. American officials, cited by the Washington Post, accuse Iran of sending trainers, advisers, forces, and surveillance equipment to help its ally [3]. Rumors of Hezbollah involvement in the suppression of dissent are also growing louder, attested to by the burning of pictures of Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah by the protesters [4].
Despite a few defections, Assad seems to have preserved a firm grip on the military, and indeed on all four pillars of his rule outlined by influential American think-tank Stratfor [5]. Reports that he is being abandoned by his Alawite power base will likely prove to be false [6], and the Assad clan is firmly behind him. "I can assure you that none of these people [at the conference in Antalya] represents the Syrian opposition," his exiled nephew Ribal Assad told the Guardian. "They are individuals that only represent themselves."
Also the Ba'ath party control of the political system in the country - arguably the shakiest leg of Assad's rule - seems to have a chance for now. Earlier this week, the government declined once again to remove Article 8 from the constitution, which establishes it as the ruling party.
Assad is even believed to be able to project power in neighboring Lebanon, where thousands of refugees and some army deserters have fled from the conflict, and where the opposition has reportedly established re-supply bases. "There is a fear that Syrian forces will attempt to kidnap refugees who fled to Lebanon to escape violence from the Syrian government," a Lebanese parliamentarian told a Lebanese radio station [7]. More speculative reports have also suggested that helicopter raids by Syrian special forces against opposition bases in Lebanon might be in the works.
The rebels enjoy some international support, including, reportedly, less-than-public support by American interventionist circles [8]. Assad is under some pressure; he and a number of his close associates were subjected to international sanctions, while American and European officials have stated that "all options are on the table". (See also my article "Syrian violence continues to spiral", Asia Times Online, May 18 2011).
In the past few days, Australia's Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd said that Assad should be tried by the International Criminal Court, while US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said, "Every day that goes by, the position of the government becomes less tenable and the demands of the Syrian people for change only grow stronger." Pressure mounted on Assad also from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which recently accused him of building a nuclear reactor in 2007 and called for inspections.
However, the few actual moves that the international community has undertaken against the Syrian president hardly amount to unbearable pressure. Beyond Iran and Hezbollah, Assad has a number of powerful international allies.
Turkey is vacillating somewhat - the fact that it hosted the opposition conference is proof of that - but Russia remains adamant that it would not support sanctions against Syria at the United Nations Security Council. Speculation is circulating about a possible American-Russian deal swapping Russian pressure on Libya's Gaddafi for America's silent complicity in Assad's crackdown.
Given Syria's powerful arsenal of missiles and chemical weapons, and given the uncertain future of the country should Assad's regime fall, few in the region and beyond are interested in destabilizing further the country. Thus, for now the Syrian president seems slated to enjoy relative impunity for his repressions.
His confidence manifested itself in a new charm offensive of sorts. On Monday, he reversed his previous policy and promised to cooperate fully with the IAEA [9]. On Tuesday, he announced a "full amnesty" covering "all members of political movements, including the Muslim Brotherhood". As Reuters explains, membership in the Brotherhood is punishable by death in Syria [10].
While these could be signs of either weakness or strength, Assad does not appear desperate. By contrast, embattled rulers such as Egypt's former president Hosni Mubarak, who also offered sweeping concessions under pressure, did so only when the pressure on them became unbearable. It remains to be seen whether the concessions will be implemented, or if the Syrian regime is bluffing.
A lot of details about the situation in Syria remain shrouded in mystery, but a tell-tale indicator of how Assad perceives his position is his behavior vis-a-vis his neighbors, and specifically towards Israel.
A couple of weeks ago, when he was still feeling the intense heat of the protests, he sought a diversion by sending hundreds of Palestinians to breach the Syrian-Israeli border on "Nakba day" - an annual commemoration of the displacement that accompanied the creation of Israel in 1948.
In an interview with The New York Times, his powerful cousin Rami Makhlouf confirmed the link between of escalation against Israel and increasing weakness of the Syrian regime [11]. (This logic is somewhat reversed in Lebanon, which Syria has long seen as part of its sphere of influence, and where Assad has traditionally interfered more boldly when he has been in a position of strength.)
In a few days, a new round of demonstrations against Israel is expected to commemorate "Naksa day" - the defeat of Arab armies during the Six-Day War of 1967. Israel issued "harsh" warnings against any Syrian or Lebanese infiltrations [12], and it is unclear how Assad behaves this time around.
The long-term future of the regime, however, looks shaky. The economic situation, particularly in the face of growing international isolation, is grim, and is slated to only turn worse. People have been radicalized. Weapons are reportedly flowing in from both Iraq and Lebanon.
Iran's and Hezbollah's support is also a mixed blessing for the Syrian president. His dependence on both is growing, as is their foothold in his security services, and his ability to keep an independent course after the uprising (assuming he puts it down) would be questionable. For now, nevertheless, survival trumps all.
Notes
1. Syrian businessmen back opposition conference, Guardian, 30 May 2011.
2. The Opposition Meeting in Antalya (1 June 2011) First Impressions, Syria Comment, 1 June 2011.
3. Iran reportedly aiding Syrian crackdown, Washington Post, 28 May 2011.
4. Protests sweep Syria on Friday, pictures of Hezbollah chief Nasrallah burnt, Ha'aretz, 27 May 2011.
5. Making Sense of the Syrian Crisis, Stratfor, 5 May 2001.
6. Did Four Alawi Clans Dissociate themselves from the Assads, as the Opposition Claims? Not likely, Syria Comment, 1 June 2011.
7. Report: Hezbollah forces helping Syria in crackdown on protesters, Ha’aretz, 29 May 2011.
8. A Third Way on Syria Is Still Possible, Huffington Post, 31 May 2011.
9. Under pressure, Syria offers nuclear cooperation, Reuters, 30 May 2011.
10. Syria's Assad issues amnesty - state tv, Reuters, 31 May 2011.
11. Syrian Elite to Fight Protests to ‘the End’, The New York Times, 10 May 2011.
12. Israel warns Syria, Lebanon ahead of 'Naksa Day' , ynetnews, 2 June 2011.
Victor Kotsev is a journalist and political analyst based in Tel Aviv.
(Copyright 2011 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved.)
No comments:
Post a Comment