Three Questions: Egypt's Transition

In a span of less than three weeks, Egyptians succeeded in toppling their ruler of three decades [AFP]


Al Jazeera's Senior Political Analyst Evaluates The Speed and Efficacy Of The Transition To Democracy.

By Marwan Bishara
Last Modified: 14 Feb 2011 15:37 GMT
Courtesy Of "Al Jazeera"

As change sweeps Egypt and becomes imminent in Arab political life, Marwan Bishara, Al Jazeera's senior political analyst, evaluates the speed and efficacy of the transition to democracy.

What Are The Chances That The Transition Could Still Go Wrong In Egypt?

New decisions of the supreme military council such as dissolving the country's unrepresentative parliament that came after rigged elections, bodes well for the dismantlement of the old regime and erecting a new one.

However, the military's insistence to keep the Mubarak appointed Ahmad Shafiq government for the transitional period has raised concern. Likewise, freezing the constitution is a double edge sword.

While it allows for writing a new more democratic constitution, it could also enable the military leaders to act according to its own interest, rather than the interest of the revolution.

It also begs the question, why hasn't the military command cancelled the emergency laws nor freed those arrested during the last three weeks, not to mention the political prisoners.

All of which underlines the importance of continued pressure on the military until the regime is completely dismantled and its calls for a new temporary government to oversee the transition to democratic elections are heeded.

Today, public pressure is crucial to maintain the momentum towards positive change. While working with the military is indispensable for peaceful change, progress can't be held hostage to its prerogatives.

Those with leverage over the Egyptian military, such as the Obama administration, need to keep the pressure on the generals to act as the true guardians of the revolution and its transition to republican democracy.

Otherwise, matters could get out of hand once again if the military falls back to old way of doing business, as pressure builds up against the spirit and of the revolution and its potential to spread throughout the region as a whole. After all many are bound to lose because of the historic changes taking place in Egypt.

Who Are The Potential Losers From The Egyptian Eevolution?

In the short term, the foremost loser are the region's autocrats who most likely will face serious pressure as the spirit of peoples’ power spread around the Arab and even Muslim world. So will al-Qaeda and its ilk that preferred violence to peoples' power.

In the long run, the three theocracies, or theocracy-based regimes - Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran - could see their religious-based legitimacies falter in favour of civic and democratic legitimacy as more people rise and claim their governments as citizens and people not subjects and sects.

A united, democratic and strong Egypt can regain its long lost regional influence as an Arab leader. It will eclipse Saudi Arabia, put the belligerent Israeli occupation on notice, and curtail the Iranian Ayatollahs’ ambition for regional influence.

In reality none of these regimes would like to see the Egyptian revolution succeed, regardless of what they might say publicly. And if they can help reverse it or contain it, they will without any hesitation. Fortunately however, their conflicting agendas, animosity and differences will prevent these autocrats and theocrats from jointly conspiring against the young revolution.

How Will The Revolution Attain Its Goals?

If the foremost winners from the revolution, peoples' power and democracy, are to succeed, the revolutionaries must stay steadfast and continue to apply pressure for change.

Future praise of the military should be conditional on its performance.

The revolution has accomplished so much, but serious challenges lie ahead. It's no picnic reversing decades of stagnation, corruption and nepotism.

They need to convince the military that they seek not merely cosmetic reform that encourages passivity and defuse the revolutionary spirit for change, nor mere change of faces and titles. Rather, they seek to wipe the table clean of the old ways and means.

It's this only their revolutionary spirit and yearning for radical change that will insure their achievements are not lost or compromised. In the words of one American republican: Extremism in the pursuit of liberty is no vice. Moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue.

Egyptian revolutionaries have at last changed their and the Arab long held Arab motto "In-shallah" or "God willing" that presumes lack of action and indecision. Today's spirit is in the realm of Ma-shallah, or "God wills it", and it's up to the people to make it happen.

As the Egyptian military command tries to bring back "normalcy" - which invokes stagnation in the minds of many - Egyptians are seeking extraordinary.