Should We Worry About Egypt Becoming Democratic?

By NICHOLAS KRISTOF
February 5, 2011, 10:50 PM
Courtesy Of "The New York Times"

My answer is: No.

Well, it’s fine to worry a bit, but in Egypt as everywhere else, democracy is the worst form of government except for all the others. I’ve been struck by the number of comments I’ve had, especially on Twitter and Facebook, saying that a democratic Egypt would be overrun by the Muslim Brotherhood, which would be a proxy for Al Qaeda. First, that completely misunderstands the Brotherhood, which hates Al Qaeda and is hated by it. And second, I agree that the Muslim Brotherhood would not be a good ruler of Egypt, but that point of view also seems to be shared by most Egyptians.

This is an issue I try to sort out in my Sunday column, and I note that I talked to lots of women and Coptic Christians — whom you might expect to be nervous about the Brotherhood. But they overwhelmingly welcome democracy and think it’ll be better for them than Mubarak’s autocracy.

Some of the West’s anxiety is driven, I think, by passionate supporters of Israel who believe, correctly, that Mubarak was more willing to work with Israel than the Egyptian population as a whole. But what’s the implication? That we continue to back autocracy? Look, I’d love to see the Israeli Labor Party in office forever, for I think its decline and the ascent of the Israeli right undermines Middle East peace. But it would be absurd to oppose Israeli democracy because it results in obstacles to Middle East peace. For the same reason, we shouldn’t oppose Egyptian democracy just because it leads to diplomatic challenges. At the end of the day, democracy is good for Arabs as it is for Israelis and Americans.

U.S. nervousness about the implications of Egyptian democracy has led America to play a prominent role in working toward a gradual — emphasis on gradual — transition to democracy. Essentially, we’re worried that rapid elections would benefit the Muslim Brotherhood, which is one of the few elements of the opposition that is really organized. But I worry that the U.S. emphasis on gradualism is counterproductive in three ways, in its impact on Egyptian public opinion: 1.) we confirm suspicions that it’s the U.S. that pulls the strings in Egypt; 2.) we bolster suspicions that the U.S. doesn’t really want real democracy in Egypt; and 3.) we end up bolstering the Muslim Brotherhood as a consequence. From my days living in Egypt as an Arabic student I remember the power of the narrative of outside powers controlling Egypt, and we don’t want to do anything that will underscore them.

So if the West distances itself from people power, that just undermines pro-Western forces and helps the more xenophobic and Islamist groups. Anyway, that’s my take. Read the column and post your thoughts. Comments by Egyptians and Israelis particularly welcome.