Every 10 years, everyone in the United States gets counted – all 308,745,538 of them, according to the 2010 Census. The number of representatives in Congress, however, stays at 435. Dividing the larger number by the smaller gives the average number of people in each congressional district (now 709,760).
But Americans move around a lot – for new jobs or better weather, to be closer to family, or just for the adventure. As a result, the boundaries of those congressional districts have to shift to make sure that each district has as close to the same number of people as possible. And that shifting can have important political, economic, and social consequences. That’s what ‘redistricting’ is all about.
Brad Knickerbocker, Staff writer
Courtesy Of "The Christian Science Monitor"
1. How Are Seats In Congress Reassigned?
The process is called "reapportionment." It works this way: Each state is assigned one seat. Then, an apportionment formula allocates the remaining 385 congressional seats, one at a time, among the 50 states (starting with the most populous) until all 435 seats are assigned.
The largest state – California, pop. 37,253,956 – gets 53 US representatives. The smallest – Wyoming, pop. 563,626 – has just a single representative. (But Wyoming shouldn't feel too left out because it gets just as many US senators as every other state.)
2. Who Are Reapportionment's Winners and Losers?
As a result of the 2010 Census, eight states will gain congressional seats: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, and Washington.
Ten states will lose congressional seats: Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
3. Who Draws The District Lines?
State legislatures have primary responsibility for drawing district lines in most states. To reduce the possibility of political pressure or interference, many states name bipartisan commissions to do the redistricting.
In seven states – Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming – the population is so small that there's only one member of the House of Representatives. Therefore, there's no need for redistricting.
4. What Is 'Gerrymandering'?
Gerrymandering is the manipulation of district boundaries to give an advantage to one particular group (political, racial, religious, ethnic, urban, rural, etc.), often in an attempt to keep incumbent elected officials in power.
The name originated in the early 19th century, when Massachusetts Gov. Elbridge Gerry signed a law creating a district that benefited his party. It was shaped like a salamander, hence "Gerrymander."
The civil rights movement and the 1965 Voting Rights Act helped end (or at least reduce) the practice as it had been applied to race. But Republicans and Democrats still squabble over boundaries when it comes time to redistrict.
5. Once Redistricting Occurs, Can It Be Legally Challenged?
Yes. As recently as 2006, the US Supreme Court heard a challenge by the League of United Latin American Citizens of Texas to redistricting done following the 2000 Census.
Citing the 1965 Voting Rights Act, the court ruled by a 5-to-4 majority that one district's boundaries – District 23 – had to be redrawn because it diluted the voting strength of the majority population of Hispanics.
Writing for the court majority, Justice Anthony Kennedy also wrote that states could change congressional district boundaries more than once within each 10-year census period. This means, for example, that if a state legislature changes party control, the new majority can order another redistricting that could be to its advantage.
6. If A State Didn't Gain Or Lose Representatives, Will The Districts Stay The Same?
Unless they're one of the low-population states with a single US representative, they'll still have to adjust district boundaries because of population shifts within the state since the last census (or since the last redistricting, if one occurred more recently).
Even then, states may need to redistrict for state, county, and municipal positions elected by district.
7. How Will The Recent Midterm Elections Affect Redistricting?
Just as the recent elections saw a GOP takeover of the US House of Representatives (and more Republicans in the Senate), the list of "winners" and "losers" in terms of population – and therefore in congressional districts – appears to benefit Republicans.
As an analysis by the Gallup polling organization shows: "Each of the 10 states losing congressional seats as a result of the newly announced 2010 census reapportionment process is politically Democratic, based on a Gallup political identification measure from the first six months of this year. Five of the eight states gaining seats skew Republican."
On the other hand, Latinos are the fastest-growing minority group in the country. More often than not, Latinos vote Democratic (as was most evident in California's election for governor and US senator), and this could affect some states that the GOP has been relying on, until now.
8. How Could Reapportionment Affect The Next Presidential Election?
The number of representatives a state has in the House has a direct bearing on the number of votes a state has in the Electoral College. Following apportionment, states that voted for Barack Obama for president in 2008 lost six seats in Congress and hence six electoral votes, while states that voted for John McCain gained six.
Also, depending on who moves into a state, reapportionment may signal a shift in a state's overall political hue – for example, from relatively blue (Democratic) to relatively red (Republican). Some states could shift into the "swing" category (purple). Others might move out of the swing category to more likely vote with one party or the other.
In very close elections (such as 2000), just one state shifting this way could change the outcome.
What's next?
The US Census Bureau soon will provide states with more detailed demographic data from the 2010 Census so that redistricting may begin.
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