Iran Is Being Dangerously Cornered

By Linda S. Heard
Online Journal Contributing Writer
Oct 1, 2009, 00:29
Courtesy Of The Online Journal

If Tehran is concerned about Israeli saber-rattling and threats of crippling sanctions from its Western allies, it’s not showing it.

On the contrary, the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has recently repeated his views on the Holocaust, calling it “a lie” while warning that Israel has no future. His remarks lend grist to the Israeli prime minister’s “Iran is an existential threat” mill and simply serve to bring the fence-sitters over to Israel’s side.

Appearing to relish the controversy, when challenged, he indicated that he was proud that his words have angered “the professional man-slayers” meaning Israel and its Western allies. Hours before his address to the United Nations Assembly last Wednesday, the Iranian leader was interviewed by CBS anchor Katie Couric, who showed him photographs of Holocaust victims. “You have called the Holocaust ‘a lie,’” she said. “Is this photo fabricated? Is this photo a lie?”

“There are many historical events, similar historical events,” he retorted. “Why is this one, in particular, so important to you? In World War II 60 million people were killed. Why are we just focusing on this special group alone? We are sorry for all the 60 million people who lost their lives, equally.”

In response, Benjamin Netanyahu has lashed out at the UN for allowing Ahmadinejad a place on the General Assembly’s podium. Brandishing the blueprints for the Nazi death camp Auschwitz, he railed, “To those who gave this Holocaust denier a hearing, I say on behalf of my people . . . Have you no shame? Have you no decency?”

In a further display of defiance, just days before Iran is scheduled to participate in talks with Germany and the five permanent UN Security Council members, Tehran is conducting a large-scale military exercise. On Sunday, it tested a multi-missile launcher and fired short-range Fateh and Tondar missiles within Iranian airspace. Head of the Revolutionary Guard Air Force Gen. Hossein Salami said the tests sent a message that Iran was resolved to defend its national values.

In retaliation for Iran’s war games, the Israeli Defense Forces in cooperation with the United States military is set to simulate missile attacks by Iran, Lebanon, Syria and Gaza on Israel.

But what has Israel and the US fired-up is the revelation that Iran has been constructing a second uranium enrichment plant near the city of Qom, which may indicate that Iran’s nuclear advance is on a speedier track than hitherto believed.

Naturally, Netanyahu is jumping up and down like a cat on hot bricks telling everyone who will listen “I told you so.” Not only have the usual suspects -- the US, Britain and France -- greeted this news with dismay, even Iran’s ally Russia is worried. The Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has issued a statement saying the uranium facility is a “source of serious concern.”

In fact, while Iran notified the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) by letter on Sept. 21, it was US President Barak Obama’s claim that Iran did not disclose the new plant that has led to ominous headlines but, in fact, under the IAEA’s rules, Iran (like any other country) was not obliged to declare the existence of the site to the nuclear watchdog until six months before uranium is introduced to the facility.

Moreover, Iran has invited the IAEA to inspect the plant. It must be said, too, that under the articles of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), every member has the right to develop nuclear energy and to receive assistance from fellow members in so doing.

Iran has consistently denied that it is pursuing nuclear weapons and says its commitment to nonproliferation “remains intact.” It has also supported a UN resolution calling for a “nuclear-free Middle East.” The problem isn’t that Iran has violated the NPT or IAEA requirements. It is simply that it has too many powerful enemies who do not trust its intentions.

“No one can seriously believe that the aims of these activities are peaceful,” says French President Nicolas Sarkozy, a sentiment that is heartily shared by the US president and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown. Currently, the three are pushing for tough UN sanctions against Iran.

Now that President Obama has canceled the planned anti-missile shield that was to be based in Poland and the Czech Republic, Moscow appears to be inclined toward further anti-Iran sanctions, which may be a quid pro quo. The holdout, so far, is China, which believes that sanctions would not be conducive to diplomatic efforts.

It’s clear that both sides are in no mood to back down. The Iranian government is united in defending its right to enrich uranium under the NPT, and Israel and the West will not countenance a nuclear-armed Iran.

The way things are going, they could be reaching the point of no return. Last week, British Foreign Secretary David Miliband refused to rule out military action against Iran if it continued on the same path. Those of us who followed closely the run-up to the invasion of Iraq are beginning to experience a chilling sense of déjà vu.

However, Iran is not Iraq. Its nuclear sites are numerous and scattered all over the country. The Natanz facility, for instance, is buried deep underground and well protected by Russian surface-to-air missiles. Israel has long been champing at the bit to launch strikes but there are many obstacles in its way.

First, it must obtain the green light from the US -- which until now the White House has been loath to provide -- and, secondly, it would have to resolve overflight and refueling problems. Thirdly, an incomplete strike, would only serve as a delaying factor, and would probably increase Iranian resolve in the same way that Saddam Hussein pursued a bomb after Iraq’s Osirak reactor was hit in June 1981.

Iran has repeatedly stated that it wouldn’t accept an attack lying down. The prime targets of its ballistic missiles would be Israeli cities and American interests in the Gulf. It could also close the Straits of Hormoz to shipping, which would push oil prices sky high and damage the already fragile global economy. Finally, it may be that Iran has an arsenal of bought-in nuclear warheads purchased from former Soviet Union countries after the bloc collapsed, while a report by William J. Broad and David E. Sanger published in the New York Times on November 19, 2008, suggests that Iran already has enough fuel for one nuclear weapon.

The hotheads must be silenced. Diplomacy must prevail. Else, in the worst case scenario, this region and the world may be sleepwalking toward a conflagration that will consume us all.

Linda S. Heard is a British specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She welcomes feedback and can be contacted by email at heardonthegrapevines@yahoo.co.uk.

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