By Amos Harel
Last update - 12:10 05/10/2008
Courtesy Of Haaretz NewsPaper
What will the next war look like? Recent statements from several senior Israeli military officials offer a surprising answer: Perhaps much like the last one.
Following on the Israel Defense Forces' failure in the 2006 Second Lebanon War, the army is likely to resume fortifying its maneuvering capability, represented by the Armored and Infantry Corps, at the expense of its firepower, particularly that of the Air Force.
However, a recent interview with GOC Northern Command Gadi Eisenkot, and articles written by two senior reserve officers, indicate that the IDF will continue to give first priority to firepower, even if the targets it chooses are different than those chosen in previous conflicts.
This is not merely a theoretical matter. Though neither Israel nor Hezbollah seems particularly interested in another round of fighting, another conflagration is certainly possible. This could come as a result of a revenge attack for the February killing of senior Hezbollah operative Imad Mughniyeh, for which the group blames Israel, or as an Israeli response to the group's smuggling of anti-aircraft weapons into Lebanon.
In an interview Friday with the daily Yedioth Ahronoth, Eisenkot presented his "Dahiyah Doctrine," under which the IDF would expand its destructive power beyond what it demonstrated two years ago against the Beirut suburb of Dahiyah, considered a Hezbollah stronghold.
"We will wield disproportionate power against every village from which shots are fired on Israel, and cause immense damage and destruction. From our perspective, these are military bases," he said. "This isn't a suggestion. This is a plan that has already been authorized."
Colonel (Res.) Gabriel Siboni recently authored a report through Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies backing Eisenkot's statements.
The answer to rocket and missile threats from Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, he believes, is "a disproportionate strike at the heart of the enemy's weak spot, in which efforts to hurt launch capability are secondary. As soon as the conflict breaks out, the IDF will have to operate in a rapid, determined, powerful and disproportionate way against the enemy's actions."
"This strike has to be carried out as quickly as possible, through prioritizing strikes at its assets, rather than chasing after launch sites. Such a response is likely to be remembered by decision makers in Syria and Lebanon for many years, thus deepening deterrence," he said.
Major General (Res.) Giora Eiland, formerly head of the National Security Council, belongs to a similar school of thought, and even goes a step further.
He believes Israel failed in the Second Lebanon War and is liable to fail in a third such war, because it is fighting the wrong enemy: Hezbollah, instead of the state of Lebanon itself.
Writing for an INSS publication set to come out this week, Eiland states it is impossible to beat an efficient guerrilla army supported by a state immune from retribution. The fact that Hezbollah has rebuilt its strongholds beneath the Shi'ite villages in southern Lebanon will make any IDF maneuvering efforts difficult, he writes, adding that targeted strikes against rocket launch sites will not decrease the number of rockets fired at Israel.
"Hezbollah operates under optimal conditions from our perspective. A legitimate government runs Lebanon, supported by the West, but it is in fact entirely subordinate to the will of the Shi'ite organization," he writes.
Eiland recommends preemptive action: that Israel pass a clear message to the Lebanese government, as soon as possible, stating that in the next war, the Lebanese army will be destroyed, as will the civilian infrastructure.
"People won't be going to the beach in Beirut while Haifa residents are in shelters," he writes.
While Eisenkot and Siboni deal primarily with striking Shi'ite strongholds, Eiland sees Lebanon's infrastructure as a primary target, in a plan highly reminiscent of the one proposed by then-IDF chief of staff Dan Halutz, which was eventually shot down by U.S. opposition.
Eisenkot's "Dahiyah Doctrine" also raises a number of questions about a possible international backlash, which could end the conflict under conditions favorable to the enemy.
What the three officials have in common, surprisingly, is their emphasis on air power. Anyone who thinks the Air Force will step aside given the results of the last Lebanon war will likely be proven wrong.
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NOTE: The below pictures were not part of the above article, but were included by me as an example of Israel's Death Machine at work...
A wounded Palestinian man is wheeled into hospital after a missile strike on a mosque in Beit Lahiya, northern Gaza Strip, Saturday, Jan. 3, 2009. Palestinian medical officials say an Israeli airstrike on the mosque in the Gaza Strip has killed 10 people and wounded dozens more. It is not clear whether the dead were Hamas militants. The mosque is named after a founder of the militant group who was killed by Israel in 2004.
(AP Photo/Khalil Hamra)
A Palestinian man shouts as the body of a boy is carried from the scene of an Israeli air strike on the home of senior Hamas leader Nizar Rayan in Gaza, January 1, 2009.
(Ismail Zaydah/Reuters)
Fire and smoke rise into the sky from an Israeli air strike in Gaza City. Arab League chief Amr Mussa accused the UN Security Council on Saturday of "ignoring" Israel's onslaught on Gaza, saying the delay in agreeing a resolution is proof of failure to handle the conflict.
(AFP/Mahmud Hams)
A Palestinian fireman tries to extinguish a fire after an Israeli missile strike at a destroyed printing shop in Gaza City, Saturday, Jan. 3, 2009. Israeli tanks and infantry entered Gaza after nightfall Saturday, launching a much anticipated ground offensive in a widening war on Gaza's Hamas rulers.Israeli security officials said the operation is likely to go on for several days, but that the objective is not to reoccupy Gaza. The depth and intensity will also depend on parallel diplomatic efforts, the officials said.
A fire burns following an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City, Saturday, Jan. 3, 2009. Israeli tanks and infantry entered Gaza after nightfall Saturday, launching a much anticipated ground offensive in a widening war on Gaza's Hamas rulers. Israeli security officials said the operation is likely to go on for several days, but that the objective is not to reoccupy Gaza.
Israeli artillery fires from the Israeli-Gaza border. Israeli tanks rolled into Gaza on Saturday and engaged in night-time battles with Hamas forces after more than a week of air strikes that left hundreds of Palestinians dead and widespread destruction.
Protesters shout slogans against the Israeli offensive in Gaza during a demonstration in Madrid Saturday, Jan. 3, 2009. Israel showed no sign of slowing its blistering offensive against Gaza's Hamas rulers.
(AP Photo/Daniel Ochoa de Olza)
A Palestinian man shouts at the scene of an Israeli air strike on the home of senior Hamas leader Nizar Rayyan in Gaza, January 1, 2009.
(Suhaib Salem/Reuters)
Palestinian doctors carry a victim from Ibrahim al-Maqadna in Jabalia that was bombed in an Israeli air raid into Beit Lahia hospital in the northern Gaza Strip. Israeli troops entered Gaza under cover of darkness on Saturday, escalating the war on Hamas after artillery pounded the Palestinian territory and warplanes staged dozens of air strikes -- one killing 16 people in a mosque.
(AFP/Mohammed Abed)
Fire and smoke explode from an Israeli air strike in Gaza City.Israeli troops entered Gaza under cover of darkness on Saturday, escalating the war on Hamas after artillery pounded the Palestinian territory and warplanes staged dozens of air strikes -- one killing 16 people in a mosque.
(AFP/Mahmud Hams)
Gaza strip - 30 december 2008
jeeran.com/photos/2219340/gaza 4/?lang=e
Baby shot inside pregnant mother by israeli military
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