Courtesy Of The World Tribune
TEL AVIV — U.S. President-elect Barack Obama can be expected to have a rocky relationship with Israel, according to a new report.
The Begin-Sadat Center cited Obama's plans to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq and reconcile with Iran and Syria in concluding that the forthcoming Obama administration was likely to clash with the next Israeli government.
"Obama's preferences regarding Iran and Iraq have serious implications for Israel," the report, titled "President Obama and the Middle East Challenge," said.
"If the U.S. were to leave Iraq unstable, with the perception being one of American weakness and failure, it will strengthen the resolve of all radical forces in the region that threaten Israel and its de facto allies in the Arab world, such as Jordan."
The report, authored by Jonathan Rynhold, said Republican loser Sen. John McCain marked the "more comfortable option for Israel." Rynhold envisioned tense relations between Obama and any Likud-led government in Israel. Likud chairman Binyamin Netanyahu has been leading in most polls in the race for Israel's next prime minister.
"If Netanyahu does form the next Israeli government, there could be difficult times ahead," the report said. "This has happened previously, when Shamir and Bush Senior, as well as Clinton and Netanyahu, clashed in the 1990s. But this time Netanyahu's position would be weaker."
The report said Israel could no longer count on Republicans in Congress to temper Obama's policies in the Middle East. Instead, Obama would be supported by a Democratic-controlled Congress and a new Jewish lobby, "J Street," that would seek to undermine the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee.
Rynhold, a senior research associate at BESA, said the Obama administration could retain several leading advisers long regarded as hostile toward Israel. The report cited former National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski and Sen. Chuck Hagel, who could be pitted against the more pro-Israel Dennis Ross and Daniel Kurtzer.
"These different approaches could all find expression in parts of the future Obama administration," the report said. "In turn, this could lead to bureaucratic in-fighting and consequently policy incoherence, as has frequently occurred in the past."
The report envisioned a Middle East crisis at the onset of the Obama administration. Rynhold said Obama's foreign policy would be hampered by his lack of experience and dependent on his managerial and decision-making abilities.
"The central challenge for Obama in the Middle East is neither democratization nor securing a comprehensive resolution to the Arab-Israeli conflict — though those are worthy long term objectives — but rather the maintenance of a stable pro-American balance of power in the region," the report said. "First and foremost that means dealing with the Iranian nuclear issue."
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