NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT
25/10/2008 9:41:00 AM
Courtesy Of The Canberra Times
The United States will remain the leading global power for the next 20 to 30 years, but Australia will have to deal with a more assertive China and a gradual decline in our strategic position in the region.
That is the view of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, which published its 2008 strategic assessment yesterday.
It says Australia will face a more complex international environment over the next 30 years, in which terrorism will by no means be the most important security challenge.
The report's authors, former Office of National Assessments analyst Rod Lyon and researcher Christine Leah, argue that while the threat of ''catastrophic terrorism'' is a key strategic concern, ''the relatively slow tempo of major terrorist events ... has seen the War on Terror shift back from its initial heavy military focus towards a more balanced effort involving military, law enforcement, intelligence and development assets''.
Consequently, terrorism should not be the sole focus of Australia's strategic planning and defence effort.
The institute's review focuses on emerging strategic challenges for Australia.
The report says the United States' global leadership role will be more contested. ''New power centres are growing, resulting in a gradual relative dilution of US influence ... A set of rising powers, including China and India, is reconfiguring strategic relativities ... The growth of strategic weight in several Asian countries, and increasing military modernisation across the region, are producing a contraction of Asian strategic geography.''
But Dr Lyon and Ms Leah say Australia will hopefully remain relatively benign. ''Despite those strategic shifts, most Asian countries seem relatively optimistic about the regional security environment,'' they say. ''In large part, that's because of China's increasingly sophisticated diplomatic posture of regional reassurance, and the material gains that countries derive from closer connectedness to China's economic growth.''
The report suggests the US will face a security environment in which its primacy is unrivalled but its influence is not. ''The strategic consequences of the recent crises in US credit markets have yet to play out. At one level, they suggest a weakening of US economic instruments and influence over the next five to 10 years. But the crises have also prompted a broader slowing of the global economy, so America's geopolitical competitors might not be able fully to exploit that window of opportunity.''
The report argues continuing proliferation of nuclear weapons poses a strategic concern of top priority, with pessimists warning the world may be approaching a nuclear tipping point, especially in the Middle East and North-East Asia.
''The tipping-point world is much scarier. We would see an abrupt increase in the number of nuclear-armed states. A world with many nuclear states would be one of nuclear imbalances, ambiguous red lines, and greater opportunities for the leakage and sale of both weapons and fissile materials.''
It argues terrorist threats from al-Qaeda and others will persist, but should be countered with a strategy, including serious efforts to negotiate with al-Qaeda affiliates, and to delegitimise the group among its supporters.
The report says Australia will remain a difficult target for terrorists and Australians abroad will continue to be at greater risk.
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