The American Raid

By Abdullah Iskandar
October 29, 2008
Courtesy Of Dar Al-Hayat

The American military command did not really care who would be in the line of fire when it raided the Syrian territories. While the quasi-official American justification of the raid which explicitly violates Syrian sovereignty for the first time since the invasion of Iraq claimed that it targeted a major "smuggler" of foreign fighters into Iraq where they wage terrorist attacks, this means that those fighters have become, in the opinion of the American command, stronger, capable of undermining whatever accomplishments the US boasts of in Iraq. This also means that the threat has grown so serious that it forced the Americans to adventurously raid Syrian territories. This would contradict with Washington's claims about the success of its new strategy in Iraq, the handing in of more regions to Iraqi troops, and the noticeable drop in suicide attacks. It would also specifically contradict with the most recent American talk about the noticeable drop in the number of fighters crossing the Syrian borders, hence the growing Syrian cooperation in this respect.

On the other hand, this raid offers an additional excuse for the hard-line Iraqis in the negotiations over the security treaty with the US. Just as the talks reach a critical point over various points of contention, especially the right of American forces to launch operations in neighboring countries from Iraqi territories, the growing fear is that this specific article may be used as an excuse for more American military intervention that serves American interests rather than peace and security in Iraq and neighboring countries. Consequently, the raid will increase the pressure on the Iraqi government, especially by Iran and Syria which fear that this article will become a constant source of threats to them. All this would further complicate rather than facilitate the negotiations although the US administration is in a rush to conclude a security deal with Iraq before yearend in the hope that signing the treaty would be concluded during President Bush's term, especially as this administration wishes to avoid returning to the UN to extend the current legal status of occupation troops. Resorting to the UN could involve difficult negotiations, particularly with the crisis in the Caucasus and the increasingly divergent Russian, Chinese, and American positions as the current US administration reaches the end of its term.

In this context, a few military pundits believe the raid reflects a new strategy in dealing with Syria; some have even compared it to similar raids in Pakistan launched from Afghanistan. Such a comparison, however, is inaccurate, not only because of the numerous differences between the Afghani-Pakistani and Iraqi-Syrian circumstances, but also because this strategy - which has long been implemented in Pakistan without yielding any practical results in the fight against "Taliban" - comes toward the end of the Bush term and on the eve of major changes in American leadership, changes which will demand a reassessment of the situation in Iraq and the relations with its neighbors based on the announced platforms by the presidential candidates and the expectations of most Americans.

Needless to mention, this American precedent of raiding Syrian territories under the pretext of stopping the smuggling of fighters may open the door to another issue unrelated to Iraq, but one which relates to the accusations against Syria of smuggling arms to its allies in Lebanon, especially Hezbollah. This issue was at the core of the complaint made by Israeli Minister of Defense Ehud Barak against Syria and the accusations expressed in a meeting with UNIFIL chief Italian General Graziano about Syria's constant violations of Resolution 1701. If the US can launch military operations inside Syria to stop the smuggling of fighters without legal or practical cover, then Israel may also see that as a justification for similar moves to ensure the implementation of an international resolution.