IOL Correspondent
Thu. Jul. 12, 2007
IslamOnLine
ISLAMABAD — The bloody finale of the lingering Red Mosque crisis that bit controversial scholars and their militant students against the regime is not the end of President Pervez Musharraf's trouble but rather just the start of a more different chapter, analysts believe.
"This is not end of the crisis. Pakistan will have to bear the repercussions of this operation in future," Ishtiaq Ahmad, associate professor of international relations at Quaid-I-Azam International University Islamabad, told IslamOnline.net.
"If government has the same approach to root out religious extremism, then we will see more showdowns like Red Mosque in near future, if not in Islamabad then elsewhere," he anticipated.
...Ghazi's elder brother Abdul Aziz, the leader of the mosque who was captured last week, vowed that the battle was not over.
"I lost my brother, my students, for the enforcement of Islamic Shari`ah," he told mourners.
"Ghazi and all those who died in the mosque are shaheed (martyrs). My wife and daughters are in custody but this will not stop us from struggling for an Islamic system."
Army Protoges:
Experts believe that the Red Mosque standoff would spur more trouble.
"Religious extremism has been posing a potential threat to Pakistan," said professor Ahmad.
"I believe that the Red Mosque operation will fan this extremism. One high-profile operation like Red Mosque cannot root out this threat."
..."It's the beginning of crisis. And if the current status-quo prevails, the situation will further aggravate," Sabihuddin Ghousi, a Karachi-based analyst, told IOL.
He raised various questions about the Red Mosque operation.
"How such a huge quantity of weapons was piled up in Red Mosque, which is located in the heart of capital? Why has the government been turning a blind eye to the issue for so long?
The Red Mosque students, who reportedly built bunkers and trenches to hold off the army commandos, used heavy weapons including rocket launchers and machine guns to combat government forces.
"Who was patronizing Ghazi brothers, who had been challenging the government's writ for last six months under the nose of President House?" asked Ghousi.
"Unless we have answers to these questions, there are least chances of any improvement. The government has to look for answers of these questions no matter, if its own people are found guilty."
Ghousi holds the successive military regimes responsible for increasing religious extremism in Pakistan.
"Military regimes can't be absolved of the responsibility. It began with the proxy war against USSR in Afghanistan, where we were used for US interest. Then the US left us alone to face the consequences of that proxy war in the form of religious extremism, weapons and drugs."
Professor Ahmad shares the same analysis.
"This is the sequel of Jihad against defunct USSR in 1980s, Jihad in Kashmir in 1990s, and the traditional so-called Mullah-military alliance in Pakistan," he said.
The Ghazi brothers were known to have had ties with Pakistan's shadowy intelligence agencies.
They and their late father, who founded the mosque, were claimed to be proteges of Pakistani intelligence during Afghanistan's 1979-89 anti-Soviet jihad and later in supporting the Taliban rise to power.
..."Nobody has emerged as the winner. When so many lives are lost, then those who conducted the operation, and those who miscalculated the situation, both arelooser."
Polarization:
Ghazi Salahuddin, a senior political analyst, believes the Red Mosque operation will deepen the differences between religious and liberal forces in the country.
"There might be a clear-cut polarization in the country's politics following this operation," he told IOL.
"At the moment, the religious and liberal forces are united on one point agenda, i.e. to oust General Musharraf.
"But after this operation, which is supported by the liberal forces like the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), there are chances of disintegration," he anticipated.
Salahuddin doubts the credibility of the government's version of events regarding the Red Mosque operation.
"There is no credibility of this government. Nobody knows the exact number of casualties, and the mystery of negotiations between militants and government."
The Ulema delegation appointed by the government to negotiate with late Abdul Rashid has blamed the regime for the failure of talks and the "bloodshed."
They said a compromise deal reached with Ghazi with the initial acceptance of the government was rejected when sent to the President House.
"The government is solely responsible for killing of innocent people in the operation. It has hoodwinked us," said Grand Mufti of Pakistan Maulana Rafi Usmani.
Several experts and officials have accused Musharraf of egging on the Ghazi brothers to play up tensions and remind his US allies of his indispensability in the fight against militancy.
"This is not end of the game," maintains Salahuddin.
"Nothing seems to be in favor of Musharraf. All the simmering issues, including the judicial crisis, could not be defused through Red Mosque operation."
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