Low Rosk Of A Terrorist Nuclear Bomb

Expert Says Low Risk Of Terrorist Nuclear Bomb

SpaceWar

SINGAPORE, June 1 (AFP) Jun 01, 2007

The risk is low that Al-Qaeda and other "terrorist" groups could get enough highly enriched uranium to build a nuclear bomb, an expert said ahead of an international defence conference Friday.

Mark Fitzpatrick, a former US State Department non-proliferation official, said that while extremist groups could acquire the technology to build a bomb, it would be difficult to get enough fissile material even on the black market.

The total volume of plutonium or highly enriched uranium taken from all the reported cases of nuclear smuggling worldwide was inadequate to build a weapon, he said ahead of an international meeting of senior defence officials.

"This is the classic low-probability, high-consequence danger that governments must focus a great deal of attention to," said Fitzpatrick from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), which organises the annual conference.

"The probability is too low for people to be worrying about it and keeping up at night," he said.

"But is it the kind of risk that governments should pay a great deal of attention to prevent?

Absolutely."

He said eight kilograms (18 pounds) of highly enriched uranium has been confiscated worldwide, one-third the amount needed for an implosion-type nuclear device and a fraction required for a gun-type weapon.

Fitzpatrick said the gun-type was easier to build but would require about four times more enriched uranium than the implosion variety.

"It would be harder for a terrorist group to acquire that much more nuclear material," he said.

He said the black market for atomic materials and technology had been "constrained" following the disruption of a global network involving disgraced Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan three years ago.

But he stressed it had not been eradicated.

"The continuing strong demand for nuclear technology for weapons purposes reinforces the need for vigilance. Iran in particular has built a procurement structure that is equivalent to if not larger than Khan's global network," he said.

US Defence Secretary Robert Gates is attending the security conference along with his counterparts from China, Japan, South Korea and India, among others.

Hosts Singapore threw a tight security blanket around the hotel where the meetings are being held.