Russia Plans For Future Wars

Russia Plans For Future Wars As Other Doubt Capabilities

By Andrei Kislyakov
UPI Outside View CommentatorMoscow (RIA Novosti)
May 30, 2007
SpaceWar

Military dictionaries say that what distinguishes war from peace is the massive use of weapons. But today this interpretation is desperately obsolete. The goal of a war of the future will not be to seize enemy territory but to deal surgical strikes against sensitive targets.

International borders are not violated, large-scale use of ground troops and armor is becoming a thing of the past, and the role of strategic aviation is diminished. The traditional nuclear triad is being replaced with non-nuclear high-accuracy weapons with different basing modes.

In turn, this implies the presence of numerous satellite-based reconnaissance, warning and targeting systems that themselves require protection. This factor alone makes the development of space weapons inevitable.

This series of articles deals with work on orbital combat systems, modernization of strategic arms and development of entirely new types of weapons.

Space weapons are weapons and auxiliary systems designed for deployment and use in space. They consist of different types, principles of action and designations. It is necessary to divide them into active and passive elements. The latter include satellite systems for reconnaissance, communications and target indication that have been used by many countries for a long time.
The more dangerous type, however, is the active element, which can be used for anti-ballistic missile defense, radio-electronic warfare, orbital bombing of any territory with nuclear and non-nuclear warheads, and anti-satellite weapons.

The main types of space-based assault weapons are of four kinds:

First, there are intercontinental ballistic missiles. Their warheads are put into what is called the "staging orbit." In the event of a crisis and a command to destroy targets, the multiple-warhead-dispensing mechanism comes into action. This basing mode was suggested for the American MX ICBM when Soviet-U.S. tensions reached their peak in the early 1980s.

Second, there are ground-, air- and space-launched anti-satellite missiles.

Third, there are directed energy weapons, including chemical and X-ray lasers and beams.

Fourth, there are electronic weapons: pulse generators of powerful radio waves for radio-electronic warfare and magnetic-field-generated and plasma compression pulses.

The main point to bear in mind is that space-based weapons allow comprehensive control over Earth's surface. The appearance of permanent manned military stations in near-Earth orbit is only a matter of time.

Nonetheless, such stations will not be developed in the near future, but automatic systems will.

They will be equipped with weapons based on new physical principles. Moreover, there is evidence that a system has already been sent into space equipped with missiles and lasers capable of destroying satellites in low, medium and stationary orbits.

The military rivalry in space between the Soviet Union and the United States in the late 1950s took two forms: anti-missile defense and action against a potential enemy's space-based systems.

In the United States, work in both areas saw mixed results but without any obvious conflicts between the people involved, whereas in the Soviet Union it was dominated by good old-fashioned behind-the-scenes clan struggle.

Russia Cannot Rival US In Arms Race Says AnalystWashington

(AFP) May 30 - Russia may have test-fired a new rocket and warned of an "arms race" due to US missile shield plans in Europe -- but analysts say a repeat of the Cold War bomb scramble is unlikely.

"I doubt very much ... that the Russians are going to rush ahead and build a whole bucket load of these kind of missiles," Theresa Hitchens, director of the Center for Defense Information in Washington, told AFP.

She was referring to Moscow's announcement on Tuesday that it had successfully tested a RS-24 rocket, a new multiple warhead ballistic missile designed to overcome air defense systems.

"I think they would like to show the United States and the rest of the world that they are not impotent in the face of US missile defense," she added, saying Russia was "posturing" on the "political issue" of missile defense.

Russia is locked in a diplomatic battle over US plans to expand its missile defense shield into central Europe.

The United States says the system, involving a planned radar base in the Czech Republic and 10 interceptor missiles in neighboring Poland, would defend Europe against potential threats from Iran and North Korea, while posing no threat to Russia.

But Russia is furious at the plans.

Its Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Wednesday accused the United States of sparking a new arms race. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice had earlier described Russian concerns as "ludicrous."

"There is nothing ludicrous about this issue because the arms race is starting again. Strategic stability is being damaged," Lavrov told reporters Wednesday after a meeting of G8 foreign ministers near Berlin.

But US analysts doubt Russia has the means to take part in such a race.

"Russia's nuclear forces will continue to shrink, even with this new missile and its warheads," said Michael Krepon, co-founder of the Henry L. Stimson Center, a specialist security think-tank in Washington.

The Russian ministry of defense refused to reveal the characteristics of the new missile but said it was designed to replace the Soviet-era RS-18 and RS-20 rockets.

"This test clarifies the message that Moscow has minimal assured destruction capabilities even with US military dominance and missile defenses," Krepon said.

Political scientists Keir Lieber of Notre Dame University in Indiana and Daryl Press from the University of Pennsylvania detailed what they said was Russia's declining post-Cold War military clout last year in the journal Foreign Affairs.

"Even as the United States' nuclear forces have grown stronger since the end of the Cold War, Russia's strategic nuclear arsenal has sharply deteriorated," they wrote. "What nuclear forces Russia retains are hardly ready for use."

"Unless they reverse course rapidly, Russia's vulnerability will only increase over time," they added.

"With the US arsenal growing rapidly while Russia's decays and China's stays small, the era of MAD (mutual assured destruction by nuclear weapons) is ending -- and the era of US nuclear primacy has begun."

"Arms-racing was a cold war phenomenon," said Krepon. "We are now living in a world of power disparities, which means asymmetric responses, not arms racing."

Moscow also may have other priorities beyond building stocks of weapons, Theresa Hitchens of the Center for Defense Information said.

The Russians "have got petrodollars coming in right now but they are trying to invest in lots of different things, particularly their space programs," she said.

When it comes to building more rockets, "the Russians are going to have to make some choices where they want to spend their money. I don't really think that President (Vladimir) Putin wants a new Cold War with the United States."

(Andrei Kislyakov is a political commentator for RIA Novosti. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti. This article is reprinted by permission of RIA Novosti.)

Source: United Press International
Source: Agence France-Presse

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