02 April 2007
PINR
The Following Are Partial Excerpts From The Original Article:
At its core, this is a political, not a territorial, dispute and the 15 British military personnel are just pawns in a much bigger strategic game between Iran and the West over the future of the Middle East.Report Drafted By: Dr. Harsh V. Pant
This standoff comes just days after the U.N. Security Council had unanimously voted to impose tougher sanctions against Iran because of its defiance on the nuclear issue and after U.S. warships were deployed in the Persian Gulf for their biggest naval exercises there since the invasion of Iraq four years ago.
As Iran has become more confrontational in recent months, there is growing nervousness among the Gulf States, and speculation has increased about a potential war between the United States and Iran. The U.S. naval exercises are as much about sending a message to Iran that despite Iraq and Afghanistan Washington is fully capable of responding to other threats, as it is about reassuring its nervous allies in the region.
Yet Iran is also upping the ante. The Iranian navy is conducting its own war games and is reportedly using "rocket-launching ships, heavy warships, and logistic ships, as well as surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles" along with electronic warfare and simulations of "attacking surface and sub-surface targets" in the northern and middle Gulf.
There is growing concern about the beefing up of naval forces by the Iranians in the Gulf. There was an incident a few weeks back when the Saudis discovered an Iranian submarine near the coastal city of Jubail. The latest capture of British sailors only underscores the rising tensions between Iran and the West.
While the British government has come under attack domestically for not being tough enough against Iranian intransigence, there is a danger that the escalation ladder that it is trying to climb by trying to ratchet up pressure might backfire if Iranians decide to dig in their heels. It is clear that the West can only escalate it up to a point, since the West holds very few cards that it can play against Iran in the present strategic context.
For Tehran, it is an ideal time to take on the West as the United States and the United Kingdom seem bogged down in Iraq with the U.S. public losing interest in costly military interventions.
Iran also realizes that it enjoys great leverage in the political and security environment in Iraq and has the capability to intensify its sabotage activities there.
The global situation is also working in Iran's favor. The credibility of the United States and the United Kingdom is at an all time low in the comity of states as a result of the Iraq crisis.
Few states will be willing to place their bets on their pronouncements even if they are accompanied by evidence.
Meanwhile, Iran's standing in the Islamic world seems to be at an all time high, especially after the perceived victory of Hezbollah over the more powerful Israeli military.
Iran is today exerting power and influence in the strategic vacuum created by the overthrow of its foes in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Despite suggestions in some quarters that a military confrontation is inevitable, even some neo-conservatives now concede that military options against Iran are unworkable and might even be counter-productive.
For some, Iran's latest act is reminiscent of Hezbollah's kidnapping of Israeli soldiers last year and one of the lessons of the Lebanon war was that Iran, if only through proxies, was capable of causing serious damage.
A military attack might also serve to increase domestic nationalistic sentiment and unifying diverse forces in Iran against the United States, thereby strengthening the hand of Ahmadinejad who has been under some pressure domestically for poor economic performance.
A military action might serve to postpone, rather than eradicate, Iran's perceived nuclear ambitions.
Yet the limits of diplomacy are also clear for all to see as so far it has failed on producing any significant change in Iran's behavior. The Security Council has so far passed several resolutions against Iran's nuclear program and has tightened sanctions against the regime, garnering support not only from the West but also from states seen as sympathetic to Iran, yet the Iranian work on uranium enrichment has continued unabated.
Furthermore, the more Iran is threatened by the outside world, the more its stature in the Islamic world grows as a "crusader" against "Western imperialism."
Conclusion:
The present crisis between the United Kingdom and Iran may finish soon once the Iranians have squeezed whatever propaganda benefit they can from the squabble. Diplomatic contacts between the two sides are already underway and may yield some result once a face-saving formula is found for both sides.
Nevertheless, it would be a mistake to assume that tensions between Iran and the West will cease anytime soon.
The present crisis is just one of the manifestations of the changing balance of power in the Middle East wherein Iran is emerging as the main power in the region.
Its leaders know this and they are exploiting the present strategic environment to their advantage.
For the West, the unfortunate reality is, be it diplomacy, bilateral or multilateral, or the threat of force, there are no good options left.
While some creative thinking may help, Western policy toward Iran in the coming days and weeks will be about choosing an option that minimizes damage as much as possible.
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