China Could Defeat The US In A War Over Taiwan

(Above Photo: Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Peter Pace inspected the honor guard during a welcome ceremony at the Defense Ministry in Beijing in late March. Pace was in Beijing to hold talks with China 's top military leaders. (AFP/Elizabeth Dalziel)

Report: How The U.S. Could Lose A War With China Over Taiwan

Issue Date: April 10-16, 2007,
Posted On: 4/9/2007
InsightMag

The Rand Corp., a leading consultant to the Pentagon and the intelligence community, has assessed that China could defeat the United States in a war over Taiwan.

Rand said Beijing has developed a strategy meant to deny the U.S. military access to the Straits of Taiwan.

In a report that contrasted sharply with the optimism of several U.S. military chiefs, Rand said China could pressure Japan to deny the United States the use of bases in a conflict, strike computer systems to delay the deployment of U.S. military forces, or attack air bases and naval assets to prevent an influx of forces and supplies.

"Although the United States currently has an overwhelming conventional military advantage, China could accomplish the objective of forcing Taiwan to surrender by employing an anti-access strategy of preventing enough U.S. forces from getting to the region in time," said Roger Cliff, the lead author of the report.

In a study sponsored by the U.S. Air Force, Rand has recommended such measures as deploying air and missile defense systems near critical facilities, remove vulnerable ships out of port at the first sign of conflict as well as bolstering communications and computer systems.

Entitled "Entering the Dragon's Lair: Chinese Anti-Access Strategies and Their Implications for the United States," the Rand report reflects the thinking of much of the Pentagon as well as the national strategic community.

Many researchers said China and other adversaries have long explored strategies to block the U.S. military from operating in overseas conflicts.

Among China's options, the report said, was pressuring Japan and other Asian allies to deny the United States the use of bases on their territory in a conflict. China could also jam U.S. communications and computers, disrupt logistics and attack air bases to prevent supplies to the military.

"The Chinese People's Liberation Army is well aware of its own shortcomings and the United States' military superiority," Cliff said. "Instead of engaging U.S. forces head-on, they would attempt to take advantage of what they perceive to be American weaknesses—including the need to deploy and operate forces thousands of miles from home."

The Rand study differed from others by and for the Pentagon regarding Chinese strategy.

Unlike previous studies, Rand examined Chinese military publications to determine Beijing's anti-access options.

This contrasted with previous studies that relied on "mirror imaging" techniques, in which U.S. analysts imagined a Chinese offensive.

The report was released on the eve of the visit by a high-level Chinese Navy delegation to Washington. The talks were said to have focused on bilateral cooperation and Taiwan.

"The Chinese are shifting from a land-centric force to an air-centric and naval-centric force, and clearly that force and capability have the potential to focus very much on the United States Navy," said Adm. Michael Mullen, chief of naval operations.

Mullen told the Brookings Institution on April 3 that the Chinese Navy has met its goals in modernization and deployment.

The admiral said the U.S. Navy was required to revise methods after a Chinese diesel submarine tracked and intercepted the U.S. Navy aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk off Okinawa in late 2006.

"They [the Chinese Navy] predicted they were going to do certain things, build at a certain rate, have certain capabilities, and they're living up to their own expectations with respect to that as they continue to evolve," Mullen said.

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