Intel Report Sees The End Of Iraq, Transformation In Mideast

SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE
Tuesday, January 16, 2007
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ANKARA — The Turkish intelligence agency has released a threat analysis report that projects the demise of Iraq by 2010 and several other Middle East states by 2015.

The analysis, in an unusual move for an intelligence agency, was posted on its website.

"In this period that we are currently in, we will see the process by which many nations will lose the marathon of history," National Intelligence Organization Undersecretary Emre Taner said.

Turkish sources said the intelligence assessment predicted the collapse of several Middle East countries torn by ethnic and religious tension. The community has urged the government to prepare for such a scenario.

Taner was reflecting a threat analysis drafted by the organization, known by its Turkish acronym, MIT. In an address on Jan. 5, Taner warned that several Middle East states could soon collapse, which would imperil Turkey as well.

Official said the intelligence assessment envisioned the collapse of Iraq by 2010. They said this could result in the creation of an independent Kurdish state along the Turkish border as well as a Shi'ite state in central and southern Iraq.

A Kurdish state in northern Iraq would foment separatism in Iran, Syria and Turkey, officials said. They said the new Iranian-backed Shi'ite state would also endanger several of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries.

"All values, structures, relations, systems and social order, be it socioeconomic or political, religious or moral, are being reshaped and redefined," Taner said. "This process is representative of the period in which new key players, secondary players and the rules of the international system are being redefined and even reborn."

The Turkish intelligence chief urged Ankara to prepare for a collapse in the region. Taner said Turkey does not have "the luxury of letting things flow at its own pace or of simply following laissez-faire tactics with regards to its policies."

"The primary reason for this [expected collapse] is the deeply conservative manner in which countries gripped by the status quo approach analysis of the system," Taner said. "For this reason, any predictions regarding the future were unsuccessful within the rigid puritanical approach."

Copyright © 2007 East West Services, Inc.