The Coming Sunni-Shi'ite Showdown

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Courtesy Of: Asia Times OnLine

By Jason Motlagh

Dec 11, 2006

http://atimes.com

WASHINGTON - After indications that Saudi Arabia would be forced to step into Iraq in the event of a US withdrawal to counter Iran-backed Shi'ite militias, Saudi officials have been silent. But the message is clear, despite a haze of diplomatic intrigue in Washington: Arab Sunni governments are rallying to stymie Tehran's influence across the Middle East in what is shaping up to be a showdown.

US failures in Iraq have stretched the world's most formidable military and soured public opinion both abroad and at home, as the Iraq Study Group (ISG) report confirms. Observers say Iran now has the initiative in its campaign to establish itself as the anchor of a "Shi'ite crescent" extending through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon to the Mediterranean. These concerns are heightened by the possibility Iran will develop nuclear weapons in the coming years.

In anticipation of ISG recommendations for a US troop drawdown, Nawaf Obaid, then managing director of the Saudi National Security Assessment in Riyadh, wrote in a November 29 Washington Post op-ed that if the US pulls out of Iraq, "one of the first consequences will be massive Saudi intervention to stop Iranian-backed Shi'ite militias from butchering Iraqi Sunnis".

"To be sure, Saudi engagement in Iraq carries great risks - it could spark a regional war," he noted. "So be it: the consequences of inaction are far worse."

Obaid, the Saudi government's senior strategic adviser at the time, cited an array of Arab leaders from Egypt, Jordan and other Arab Muslim countries that have lobbied Riyadh to protect the minority Sunni community in Iraq and thwart Iran, whose Revolutionary Guard is known to have supported Shi'ite militias with arms, funding and advisers.

The findings of the ISG report, released one week later, cemented the Saudis' worst fears: US public opinion has consolidated against the Iraq war, making a phased withdrawal almost certain to begin by 2008. Yet at a time when solidarity within the Saudi government and among its Sunni Arab allies is critical, there appears to have been a break in the ranks.

In his article, Obaid quoted Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the United States, Prince Turki al-Faisal, who said in a speech last month that "since America came into Iraq uninvited, it should not leave Iraq uninvited". Turki subsequently fired Obaid from his post on the op-ed's publication, before resigning and leaving Washington himself.

According to Stratfor, a private intelligence agency, "deep divisions" exist between Prince Turki and King Abdullah over the best strategies to protect Saudi interests in light of US involvement in Iraq. Underpinning their differences are clan rivalries within the Saudi political structure; Turki is said to be in line for the post of foreign minister held by his ailing brother, Prince Saud al-Faisal.

Former ambassador Prince Bandar is also said to be positioning himself for the foreign minister's post, and if King Abdullah were to choose him over Turki, the al-Faisal clan - one of three top clans - would be ousted from the royal hierarchy.

Regardless of how internal succession politics play out, there is little doubt the resonant op-ed reflects official Saudi policy. Last month, Prince Turki was left out of a snap meeting between King Abdullah and US Vice President Dick Cheney in Riyadh in which the monarch insisted that the consequences of a US drawdown would be far worse than those of staying the course. The Saudis are also said to have pushed hard for a meeting between US President George W Bush and Iraqi Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi, a moderate Sunni cleric with close ties to the Saudi regime.

That Saudi Arabia would actively support the same Sunni insurgents who have viciously fought and killed US forces based in Iraq is not far-fetched. Sunni Muslims in the Arabian Peninsula have strong historical and communal ties with Iraqi Sunnis currently threatened by Shi'ite militias and would not stand by idle were wholesale killing to ensue. Moreover, there is legitimate fear that a Shi'ite-dominated Iraq under the influence of Iran would pose a serious threat to Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

"The Saudis are wholly dependent on the United States for their national security and rely on US troops to block Iran from advancing beyond Iraq and into the oil-rich Saudi deserts," according to Stratfor. "Without a buffer zone in Iraq, Riyadh's need for US troops in Iraq soars."

The Saudis have been a faithful ally in the Bush administration's "war on terror" and a vital source of oil, all of which will not be forgotten as the administration recasts its Iraq strategy in the coming weeks. Incoming Defense Secretary Robert Gates said at his confirmation hearing that his chief worry if the US "leave[s] Iraq in chaos" is that "a variety of regional powers will become involved in Iraq", a pointed reference to Iran, "and we will have a regional conflict on our hands".

But since troop levels are bound to be reduced to some degree after the 2008 US presidential elections, Saudi Arabia is making contingency plans. Obaid wrote that proxy war options "now include providing Sunni military leaders (primarily ex-Ba'athist members of the former Iraqi officer corps, who make up the backbone of the insurgency) with the same types of assistance - funding, arms, and logistical support - that Iran has been giving to Shi'ite armed groups for years". The Washington Post reported on December 12 that young Saudis have already joined the Sunni insurgency as fighters, with financial aid streaming in from other Saudi citizens.

Additionally, Riyadh could raise its oil production to cut the price in half on international markets, according to Obaid. This would slash Iranian oil revenues and Tehran's capacity to support Shi'ite militias operating in Iraq.

In a calculated attempt to project solidarity and preparedness in the face of Iranian saber-rattling, Arab states have said they will consider starting a joint nuclear program "for peaceful purposes" - echoing Iran's own suspect claim. The six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman - announced the plan to "commission a study" on a "common program in the area of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes" on December 10, the day after Iran said it had begun installing 3,000 centrifuges in an expansion of its uranium-enrichment program. Israel quietly embraced the GCC decision.

It remains to be seen whether open cooperation will emerge between Israel and Arab Sunni countries to confront a common enemy, but Riyadh was conspicuously quiet during Israel's heavy-handed campaign in Lebanon to root out the Iran-backed Shi'ite Hezbollah militia. The latest scene of hostilities is the Palestinian territories, where Iran sustains Islamic Hamas with suitcases packed with millions of dollars in cash while the Saudis have reportedly promised rival President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah movement funding to pay salaries and gird security forces.

A series of tit-for-tat assassinations, culminated by last Friday's attempt on Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas, have Palestinian factions sliding toward an all-out civil war that may be an opening salvo of worse to come in the region.

Jason Motlagh is deputy foreign editor at United Press International in Washington, DC. He has reported freelance from Saharan Africa, Asia and the Caribbean for various US and European news media.

(Copyright 2006 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.)