Ankara's Exercise In Realpolitik
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Nicholas Watt,
European editor, in Brussels
Thursday December 7, 2006
By a nifty piece of diplomatic footwork Turkey has today shown that it has picked up a few tips from Britain, its greatest champion in the EU.
Ankara's proposal to open up a port and an airport to Greek Cypriot shipping was a classic example of "divide and rule" politics, whose timing was exquisite.
Abdullah Gul, the Turkish foreign minister, who briefed sympathetic countries on his initiative last night, presented his three point plan to the Finnish government which holds the EU's rotating presidency.
He proposed:
• Turkey would "give execution to the Ankara Protocol" by opening up one port and one airport for twelve months. During this period the port of Famagusta, which lies in Turkish occupied northern Cyprus, would be opened for "direct trade".
• Negotiations for a "comprehensive settlement of Cyprus" would be opened under the "UN framework" on 1 January 2007 and would be concluded by 31 December 2007. This would involve dealing with Varosha, the tourist area of Famagusta which has been a ghost town since the Turkish invasion in 1974 because it was an entirely Greek Cypriot town.
• During the period of negotiations Ankara would "look forward to opening direct trade" to Famagusta on a permanent basis and allowing international flights to land at Ercan airport in Turkish-occupied northern Cyprus near Nicosia. This is the airport used for flights between Turkey and the island.
The plan was carefully calibrated to win round the likes of Britain, by including some elements of a Finnish initiative this autumn, which failed to persuade the Turks to live up to their commitment on Cyprus by the end of this year. Finland had proposed opening up Famagusta to trade and allowing Greek Cypriots to return to Varosha.
But the Gul plan includes extra elements which are likely to prove too much for the Republic of Cyprus and possibly Germany, whose chancellor, Angela Merkel, believes Turkey should be offered a deal which falls short of EU membership.
The contentious extra elements are Turkey's demand that the UN settlement talks should be revived and its demand that Ercan airport should be open to international flights.
The Republic of Cyprus, whose Greek Cypriot supporters rejected the Annan peace plan for the island in a 2004 referendum, will be opposed to linking Turkey's EU talks to a wider political settlement on the divided island. It will argue that Turkey simply must recognise all members of the EU if it wants to join.
Opening up Ercan airport, which lies close to the divided city of Nicosia, will also prove a step too far. Cyprus will say that such a move would be tantamount to lifting the trade embargo on Turkish-occupied northern Cyprus which it would reject at the moment.
Ankara will have known exactly what objections will be raised to the Gul initiative. This explains why Mr Gul took the precaution of contacting foreign ministers from four EU countries who are sympathetic to Turkey -- Britain, Spain, Italy and Sweden. Mr Gul formally presented the plan to the Finns who laid it before EU ambassadors today.
Jose Manuel Barroso, the president of the European commission, was cautiously positive. "If that move can be confirmed I think it is certainly an important step towards full implementation of the Ankara protocol and against that background I certainly welcome it."
But Greece said Turkey must open up all its ports to Greek Cypriot shipping. Giorgos Koumoutsakos, the foreign ministry spokesman, said the EU must send Ankara a "strong message" by suspending talks on more than eight negotiating chapters unless Turkey falls into line.
The contrasting responses means that EU foreign ministers will probably struggle to reach agreement on Monday. Turkey will be calculating that Tony Blair, who described the commission plan to punish Turkey as a mistake, will battle on its behalf.
Ankara will be hoping that chancellor Merkel, who does not want Turkey to dominate Germany's forthcoming presidency of the EU, will not want a long drawn out battle.
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