Idea To Boost U.S. Forces In Iraq A 'Gimmick'
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By Judy Mathewson

Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Zbigniew Brzezinski, a former U.S. national security adviser, said it would be ``a gimmick'' for the Defense Department to increase the number of troops in Iraq temporarily before beginning to withdraw them.

``I wouldn't be at all surprised if that actually happens,'' Brzezinski said on ``Political Capital with Al Hunt,'' to air on Bloomberg Television this weekend.

``It's a gimmick because it satisfies McCain, it satisfies the hardliners,'' Brzezinski said, referring to Senator John McCain. The Arizona Republican, who is exploring a run for the presidency in 2008, said Nov. 19 that U.S. troops are ``fighting and dying for a failed policy'' in Iraq unless they get enough reinforcements to ensure a military victory.

A Defense Department review of Iraq options is likely to advocate an immediate increase of as many as 30,000 American troops, followed by a reduction to perhaps less than half the 140,000 now there, the Washington Post reported Nov. 20. President George W. Bush is also expecting advice from the bipartisan Iraq Study Group on stabilizing Iraq for an eventual pullout.

Brzezinski said U.S. and Iraqi officials should jointly announce a withdrawal date for American troops that comes before the end of 2007. Even in the best possible outcome, though, Iraq isn't likely to be secular or democratic, he said.

``Obviously it's not going to be what we have previously described as a victory,'' he said.

Advising Democrats:

With Democrats set to take control of the U.S. Congress, Bush is under pressure to address concerns about how long U.S. military personnel will be in Iraq. Brzezinski is scheduled to discuss the issue with House Democrats at a Dec. 5 meeting.

Brzezinski, 78, advised President Jimmy Carter from 1977 to 1981 and is now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. During his White House tenure, the U.S. normalized relations with China and reached an agreement with the former Soviet Union to curtail nuclear weapons.

His prediction about Iraq coincides with assessments by other former policy makers. Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who negotiated the Paris Peace Accords in 1973 that led to the U.S. pullout from Vietnam, said Nov. 19 that a ``clear'' military victory in Iraq isn't ``possible.''

Vietnam Worry:

Brzezinski, addressing whether U.S. officials will temporarily boost the number of troops and then cut them, said:

``My concern is that they'll do it slowly and then, in the end, inadvertently, they will imitate our bug-out from Vietnam,'' he said. ``Namely, we'll blame the Iraqis and leave, thereby creating the worst of all situations.''

Brzezinski said the U.S. should talk to Iraqi leaders about a date for a U.S. departure from the country to ``flush out those Iraqi leaders who have staying power,'' and then make sure to announce the pullout jointly.

The Iraqis should then invite their Muslim neighbors, along with Pakistan, Morocco and Algeria, to an international conference to discuss ways to stabilize the country after the Americans leave, Brzezinski said.

Lastly, the U.S. should organize an international effort to help the economic recovery of Iraq after the U.S. withdrawal, Brzezinski said.

``With the passage of time, the chances of implementing that advice effectively are being reduced,'' he said. ``That's a tragedy.''

`Basis for Power:'

After a U.S. withdrawal, Iraq isn't likely to be stable, and the ``basis for power'' will be a coalition between the Shiites and Kurds, Brzezinski said.

Brzezinski also questioned the Bush administration's policy on Iran, calling it ``self-defeating.'' Asked whether the U.S. should have to accept the reality of the Iranians obtaining nuclear weapons, he said, ``I'm not entirely convinced they are really seeking them.''

The Iranian leadership is ``seeking a comprehensive nuclear program'' that would put the country in a position to produce nuclear weapons, Brzezinski said.

``Japan can produce nuclear weapons very quickly, but they haven't done it, and I think that's where Iran wants to end up,'' he said.

Last Updated: November 24, 2006 12:04 EST