Russia, China Looking To Form 'NATO Of The East?'

By-Fred Weir,
Correspondent of the Christian Science Monitor.
Wed. 26, 2005

Moscow-Russia and China could take a step closer to forming a Eurasian Military Confederacy to rival NATO at a Moscow meeting of the Six-Member Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Wednesday, experts say.

The group, which started in 2001 with limited goals of promoting cooperation in former Soviet Central Asia, has evolved rapidly toward a Regional Security Bloc and could soon Induct-new members such as India, Pakistan, and Iran.

One initiative that core members Russia and China agree on, experts say, is to squeeze US Influence-which peaked after 9/11-out of the SCO's neighborhood. "Four Years ago, when the SCO was formed, official Washington pooh-poohed it and declared it was no cause for concern." says Ariel Cohen, Senior Researcher at the Heritage Foundation in Washington. "Now they're proven wrong."

Wedneday's meeting is expected to review security cooperation, including a spate of upcoming Military Exercises between SCO Members' Armed Forces. It may also sign off on a new "Contact Group" for Afghanistan.

In attendance Wednesday will be Prime Ministers of Member States Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, as well as top officials from several recently added "Observer States," including Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh, Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, and Iranian Vice President Parviz Davudi.

The SCO's swift rise has been fueled by deteriorating security conditions in ex-Soviet Central Asia, as well as a hunger in Moscow and Beijing for a vehicle that could counter US Influence in the region.

Russian leaders blame the Bush administration, with emphasis on democracy-building, for recent unrest, including revolution in kyrgyzstan and a putative Islamist revolt in Uzbekistan. "Washington wants to expand democracy, which it sees as a panacea for all Social and Geopolitical evils," says Sergei Karaganov, head of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policies, which advises the Kremlin. "But it is clear to us that any rapid democratization of these Countries (in Central Asia) will lead to chaos."

An SCO Summit last June demanded that the US set a timetable to remove the Bases it put in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan with Moscow's acquiescence in the wake of 9/11. In July, Uzbek leader Islam Karimov ordered the US Base at Karshi-Khanabad to evacuate by year's end.

But two recent visits to Kyrgyzstan by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice appear to have secured the US lease on that Country's Manas AirBase Indefinitely-albeit with a sharp rent increase.

This month Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov proposed holding the Indian-Chinese-Russian War Games under SCO sponsorship. "In principle, this is possible,' he said. "The SCO was formed as an organization to deal with security issues."

Should States like India and Iran join, the SCO's sway could spread into South Asia and the Middle East. "India sees Observer Status [in the SCO] as a steppingstone to full membership," says a Moscow-based Indian Diplomat who asked not to be named. But he added that India, which has recently improved its relations with the US, does not want to send an anti-US message. "We would hope the Americans would understand our desire to be inside the SCO, rather than outside," he says.

The idea of a unified Eastern Bloc has strong appeal for some in Moscow. "It's very important that regional powers are showing the will to resolve Eurasian problems without the Intrusion of the US," says Alexander Dugin, Chair of the International Eurasian Movement, whose members include leading Russian Businessmen and Politicians, "step by step we're building a World Order not based on the Unipolar Hegemony of the US."

Says Cohen, "eventually they'll wake up to this challenge in Washington-But will it be too late?"

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